📈 Sugar Prices Rebound as Market Sees Short-Term Recovery
After multiple sessions of decline, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures rebounded, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.52% to USD 524.90/t (EUR 488.16/t). The recovery is driven by technical buying and short-covering, while fundamental demand remains weak. In the EU, sugar prices remain under pressure, fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as the industry faces difficulties pushing through price increases.
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Sugar granulated
ICUMSA 45, 0,2 - 1,2 mm, EU Cat. II
FCA 0.51 €/kg
(from LT)
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 524.90 | €488.16 | +8.00 | +7.44 | +1.52% |
| Aug 25 | 505.50 | €470.12 | +6.00 | +5.58 | +1.19% |
| Oct 25 | 497.30 | €462.49 | +4.30 | +4.00 | +0.86% |
| Dec 25 | 494.20 | €459.61 | +3.40 | +3.16 | +0.69% |
| Mar 26 | 494.70 | €460.07 | +2.80 | +2.60 | +0.57% |
| May 26 | 492.50 | €458.02 | +1.70 | +1.58 | +0.35% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Technical Buying & Short Covering Drive Prices Up 📉
- The recent price rebound is primarily technical, with no fundamental shift in demand.
- Short-sellers closed positions, leading to a temporary price recovery.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Prices Despite Global Rebound 🇪🇺
- Prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with weak demand limiting upside potential.
- Industrial buyers continue to resist price increases, despite lower global stocks.
- No immediate supply shortages are visible, keeping the market well-balanced.
🔹 Stable Global Supply Conditions 🌎
- India’s sugar exports remain stable, with no additional production cuts announced.
- Brazil and Thailand continue to export strong sugar, ensuring supply availability.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (08.03 – 10.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 520 – 530 USD/t (483 – 492 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Further consolidation is expected, with limited upward momentum.
- Short-term price gains could continue, but another correction is possible without fundamental demand.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, limiting price increases.
- Imports continue to support supply, balancing weaker domestic demand.
- Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices rebounded due to short-covering and technical buying.
✅ EU market remains under pressure, with no fundamental demand increase.
✅ Global supply remains stable, preventing significant price surges.
✅ Further market consolidation is likely, with limited upside potential.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Continue monitoring the market, as further declines could offer better purchasing opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Be cautious, as prices are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.
🔹 Traders: Look for potential support levels around USD 520/t (EUR 483/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!
