📈 Sugar Prices Rebound Slightly as Market Stabilizes
After multiple sessions of decline, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw a modest recovery, with the May 2025 contract rising by 0.77% to USD 522.00/t (EUR 485.46/t). While demand concerns persist, stabilising global supply trends and technical buying have temporarily supported prices. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain unchanged, fluctuating between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as weak industrial demand keeps pressure on the market.
📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (USD) | Change (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 522.00 | €485.46 | +4.00 | +3.72 | +0.77% |
| Aug 25 | 503.30 | €467.01 | +4.40 | +4.09 | +0.87% |
| Oct 25 | 495.20 | €459.54 | +4.00 | +3.72 | +0.81% |
| Dec 25 | 492.30 | €456.84 | +4.00 | +3.72 | +0.81% |
| Mar 26 | 493.20 | €457.67 | +3.60 | +3.35 | +0.73% |
| May 26 | 491.70 | €456.28 | +2.90 | +2.70 | +0.59% |
📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR
🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences
🔹 Technical Buying Supports Prices 📉
- Prices rebounded slightly due to technical support levels triggering buy orders.
- Short-term speculative demand increased, helping futures regain footing.
🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Pricing Despite Market Volatility 🇪🇺
- Prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, reflecting weak demand.
- Industrial buyers continue to resist price increases, despite declining global stock levels.
- No significant supply disruptions have been reported, keeping EU markets well-supplied.
🔹 Improved Global Sugar Supply Outlook 🌎
- India’s output remains below expectations, but Brazil and Thailand continue to export steadily.
- Ethanol demand remains stable, with no additional sugar allocations to biofuel production.
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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (06.03 – 08.03.2025)
📉 Expected Price Movements:
- ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 520 – 530 USD/t (483 – 492 EUR/t)
- EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg
🔍 Market Outlook:
- Prices may continue to consolidate, with slight upward bias if speculative demand persists.
- Sustained buying interest is needed to prevent another selloff.
📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance
| Year | Production (Mio. t) | Consumption (Mio. t) | Ethanol Use (Mio. t) | Imports (Mio. t) | Exports (Mio. t) | Ending Stocks (Mio. t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022/23 | 16.5 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3.8 |
| 2023/24 | 15.9 | 17.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| 2024/25 (Forecast) | 16.2 | 17.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 3.3 |
📌 Key Takeaways:
- EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing price hikes.
- Imports continue to support supply, offsetting production shortfalls.
- Ethanol production remains unchanged, keeping sugar allocations stable.
🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ Sugar prices saw a slight rebound, but demand concerns persist.
✅ EU market remains under pressure, with no price increase in sight.
✅ Global supply is stable, preventing major price surges.
✅ Further market consolidation is likely, with limited upside potential.
📊 Market Strategy:
🔹 Buyers: Monitor price developments, as further stabilization could present better buying opportunities.
🔹 Sellers: Expect continued resistance to higher prices, requiring strategic sales timing.
🔹 Traders: Look for potential support levels around USD 520/t (EUR 483/t) for short-term positioning.
🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!
