Taiwan Soybean Demand Steadies as ASF Policy and Palm Oil Shape Trade Flows

Taiwan’s soybean market is entering a phase of stable but unspectacular demand, with imports easing back toward trend as feed and oil use adjust to new regulations and shifting price signals. For international suppliers, the key story is the regained U.S. share and a generally balanced outlook that caps upside for bulk demand but supports niche and containerised flows.

Taiwan relies on imports for virtually all of its soybeans, yet the coming marketing years point to contained growth rather than expansion. A nationwide food waste ban in hog feed, recovering palm oil competitiveness and stable crush capacity are reshaping how soybeans, meal and oil move through Taiwan’s supply chain. Against this domestic backdrop, global markets are watching larger U.S. soybean acreage intentions and mixed weather in the Americas, but these factors currently act more as background noise than immediate demand shocks for Taiwan.

📈 Prices & International Context

Global benchmark soybean futures on CBOT ended April 2, 2026 with active trade and broadly stable sentiment, as markets weighed larger U.S. planting intentions against ongoing weather uncertainties in the Americas. Converting recent FOB offers into indicative EUR values (using ~0.92 EUR/USD), current spot levels are broadly steady to slightly firmer compared with mid-March.

Origin & Type (FOB)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change (EUR/kg)
US No. 2, Washington D.C.	≈0.55	+0.01
India, sortex clean, New Delhi	≈0.92	+0.01
Ukraine, Odesa	≈0.32	+0.01
China, yellow, Beijing	≈0.64	≈0.00

For Taiwan’s buyers, this price backdrop interacts with comfortable domestic stocks and steady crush, reinforcing a cautious, opportunistic purchasing stance over the next 1–3 months. With import volumes expected to edge down from prior-year highs, outright price risk in Taiwan is more likely to be driven by global weather or macro shocks than by local fundamentals.

🌍 Supply & Demand in Taiwan

Taiwan imports more than 99 percent of its soybean needs, with total imports forecast at 2.725 MMT in MY2025/26, slightly below the estimated 2.77 MMT in MY2024/25. MY2026/27 imports are projected at 2.75 MMT, essentially marking a return to trend after an elevated prior year. Total domestic consumption is expected to remain flat at 2.72 MMT in both MY2025/26 and MY2026/27, implying a broadly balanced market with limited scope for structural growth.

On the crushing side, operations are stable but far from capacity. Taiwan’s four main crushers retain combined nameplate capacity of around 3 MMT per year, yet crush is forecast at 2.1 MMT in MY2025/26 and MY2026/27, unchanged from MY2024/25. Average utilisation of roughly 65–70 percent reflects both modest feed demand growth and intensifying competition in the edible oil segment, especially from palm oil.

📊 Trade Flows & Supplier Competition

U.S. suppliers have regained significant ground in Taiwan’s soybean market. In MY2024/25, U.S. shipments surged to 1.51 MMT, translating into a 55 percent market share, up sharply from 909,000 MT (35 percent) a year earlier. Over the same period, Brazil’s share dropped to 42 percent at 1.17 MMT, down from 62 percent in MY2023/24, as Taiwan buyers rebalanced origins and exploited logistical advantages in U.S. container flows.

Containerised shipments are central to this shift. In calendar year 2025, Taiwan imported around 1.26 MMT of soybeans in containers, nearly 46 percent of total volumes. Taiwan also ranked as the second-largest destination for U.S. containerised grain and oilseed exports, accounting for about 18 percent of U.S. containerised flows. Containers provide flexibility in shipment timing, temporary port storage, and tailored handling for food-grade and non-GE soybeans—critical segments for Taiwan’s soy foods and specialty processors.

Crushers and traders also leverage regional exports to balance stocks. Soybean meal exports rose 72 percent to 86,377 MT in MY2024/25, with Japan absorbing roughly 90 percent (77,740 MT). Soybean oil exports are forecast to rebound to 30,000 MT in MY2025/26 from just 7,000 MT in MY2024/25, with early shipments through February 2026 already more than four times the previous year’s pace and Malaysia taking nearly three-quarters of volumes.

🐖 Feed, ASF Policy & Meal Demand

The first domestic African Swine Fever (ASF) case, confirmed in October 2025 in Taichung’s Wuqi District and linked to unsterilised household food waste, triggered a decisive regulatory response. On December 4, 2025, the Executive Yuan announced a phased nationwide ban on food waste in hog feed: household food waste was banned immediately, business-derived waste is allowed under tight biosecurity rules through 2026, and a full ban on all food waste in hog feed will take effect on December 31, 2026.

In 2024, around 483,000 MT of food waste—some 62.6 percent of Taiwan’s total—was used as hog feed, with roughly 8 percent of pig farms registered under this system. The policy is accelerating consolidation: by November 2025, average herd size rose 6.2 percent year-on-year to 992 head per farm, the fastest growth in nearly a decade. Some smaller producers are expected to exit rather than fully switch to commercial rations based on corn and soybean meal.

Despite these exits, net meal use trends modestly higher as production shifts from on-farm food waste feeding to commercial, protein-balanced formulations. Soybean meal consumption is forecast at 1.63 MMT in MY2025/26 and 1.64 MMT in MY2026/27, up slightly from 1.62 MMT in MY2024/25. This points to steady but limited growth in feed-driven soybean demand, with the commercial feed sector gradually deepening its role in the hog and poultry value chains.

🥘 Soybean Oil, Palm Competition & Crush Margins

Soybean oil faces a more challenging outlook than meal. Food use is forecast to decline to 330,000 MT in MY2025/26 from 340,000 MT in MY2024/25, as palm oil recovers market share, particularly in the hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) segment where price competitiveness is paramount. Palm oil imports in the first half of CY2025 rebounded by about 20 percent year-on-year, reinforcing its role as the low-cost frying and cooking oil option.

For crushers, this squeeze on domestic soybean oil demand limits revenue on the oil side of the crush and constrains incentives to lift throughput. While export growth—particularly to Malaysia—provides an outlet, it does not fully offset the domestic consumption drag. With crush volumes essentially flat at 2.1 MMT, trade-based inventory management rather than aggressive expansion remains the key operating theme.

🌦️ Global Weather & Planting Outlook

In the U.S., the latest Prospective Plantings survey indicates farmers intend to sow around 84.7 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up roughly 4 percent from the previous year. Recent commentary highlights heavy late-March rains and saturated fields across parts of the Eastern Corn Belt, which could delay corn planting and encourage marginal acreage shifts toward soybeans if wet conditions persist into mid-April.

Weather outlooks for April point to continued active systems across the Midwest with above-normal precipitation risks, balanced by warmer conditions later in the month. In Brazil, the 2025/26 soybean harvest is about 70 percent complete, with drier weather in central states such as Mato Grosso aiding progress, while irregular rainfall patterns and localized excess moisture in some northeastern areas pose moderate quality risks. These factors may add short-term volatility to global prices, but Taiwan’s comfortable stocks and steady import forecasts dampen the transmission of such shocks into its physical buying pace.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Guidance

Over the next 30–90 days, Taiwan’s soybean import pace is likely to remain subdued compared with MY2024/25 highs, as adequate carry-in stocks and flat crush temper spot demand. Incremental upside for meal use may emerge as the food waste ban further shifts pigs onto commercial feed, but this will be gradual and is unlikely to spark a surge in bulk soybean purchases.

Looking 6–12 months ahead, the balance of risks leans toward stable rather than rising import needs. Palm oil’s recovery is set to cap soybean oil demand and, by extension, crush profitability, while ongoing H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in early 2026 pose a structural downside risk to poultry feed use. At the same time, ongoing consolidation and the structural shift toward commercial feed formulations should provide a durable, if modest, floor under soybean meal consumption through MY2026/27.

💡 Trading & Procurement Recommendations

• Feed buyers in Taiwan: Use current global price stability and comfortable local stocks to extend coverage into Q3 2026 on a staggered basis, focusing on meal-heavy supply contracts that align with ASF-driven ration shifts.
• International suppliers (especially U.S.): Prioritise containerised, value-added and non-GE segments where Taiwan’s structural demand is more resilient, leveraging the market’s strong preference for flexible, food-grade logistics.
• Crushers and refiners: Hedge crush margins conservatively, with particular attention to downside in soybean oil values relative to palm, and maintain optionality to redirect surplus meal and oil into regional export channels.
• Speculative participants: Treat Taiwan as a stabilising demand base rather than a growth engine; position around global weather and U.S. acreage/planting headlines while recognising that Taiwan’s import profile will likely dampen, not amplify, price swings.

📍 3-Day Directional Outlook (Key References)

• CBOT Soybean Futures (EUR-equivalent): Sideways to slightly firm as markets digest U.S. planting intentions and short-term Midwest weather; no clear catalyst for a sharp breakout.
• FOB US Gulf / PNW Soybeans (EUR/ton, indicative): Mild upward bias on weather-related risk premium, but largely range-bound given comfortable global supplies and advancing South American harvest.
• Taiwan CFR Soybeans: Stable with a slightly softer buying pace; basis levels supported by strong container demand and U.S. share gains rather than by volume growth.