Tight Desi Supply Keeps Chickpea Market Supported Despite Slow Demand

Desi chickpea (chana) prices in India are holding steady as tight physical availability offsets lacklustre demand and cautious mill buying. With limited selling pressure in domestic mandis and firm export indications, the market remains supported rather than sliding lower. The current chickpea market is defined by a delicate balance: domestic demand from besan and dal mills is sluggish, yet the physical pipeline—especially for cheaper and lower-quality desi chana—is thin. In New Delhi mandis, restricted arrivals and limited farmer selling have prevented a deeper price correction. Export and FCA/FOB offers for Indian chickpeas are stable to slightly firmer in early June, while the 2026 monsoon is progressing gradually under a below‑normal seasonal rainfall outlook, keeping forward supply risks in focus.

Prices & Market Tone

Desi chana in New Delhi wholesale trade is quoted around USD 62.83 per quintal, which translates to roughly EUR 58–60 per 100 kg depending on the daily exchange rate. This level has been broadly steady, reflecting the support from tight physical availability rather than robust demand.

Export and domestic ex-warehouse indications for Indian chickpeas in New Delhi show a flat to mildly firmer trend into early June 2026. Converting current offers to euros, most mainstream sizes are trading in a relatively narrow band:

These levels are broadly unchanged versus late May in euro terms, underscoring a sideways but firm tone in the absence of aggressive selling.

Supply & Demand Drivers

In Indian mandis, availability of desi chana—particularly cheaper and lower-quality stocks—remains low. Arrivals are modest, and traders report limited selling pressure from stockists and farmers. This tightness in physical supply is the main factor preventing a larger downside move in prices, even as end-user demand is described as slow.

Mills and besan processors are buying cautiously, focusing on immediate or near-term needs rather than building large inventories. Nonetheless, their steady baseline consumption creates a floor under the market. Demand from besan makers and dal mills is therefore the key short-term determinant for any price direction change: a revival in orders could quickly tighten the market further, while a prolonged lull would be required to trigger meaningful softening.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

The fundamental backdrop is shaped by tight domestic supply, firm export parity and an uncertain monsoon outlook. India’s 2026 southwest monsoon started later than normal and is now advancing through peninsular and eastern India. Recent updates show the monsoon progressing into Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, with expectations of further advance towards central and western India in mid-June.

However, the India Meteorological Department has downgraded its seasonal forecast to below-normal rainfall at around 90% of the long-period average, with an elevated risk of heat and intra-seasonal rainfall deficits. This raises medium-term uncertainty for pulse production, including chickpeas, and encourages cautious forward selling. In the near term, no major weather shock has materialised, but the risk premium is likely to remain embedded in prices until crop prospects become clearer.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly firm / sideways. With low desi chana availability in mandis and only cautious mill buying, prices are more likely to trade sideways with a slight upside bias rather than correct sharply lower.
• For buyers (mills, processors): Consider covering short-term needs at current levels, especially for specific sizes/qualities that are already tight. Avoid overstocking until there is clearer visibility on monsoon performance and demand recovery.
• For sellers (farmers, stockists): Limited selling pressure is supporting the market. Gradual, staggered sales may capture any modest rallies driven by renewed mill demand or weather-related concerns, while avoiding the risk of a sudden demand-led pullback.
• For importers/exporters: Monitor India’s domestic mandi prices and monsoon updates closely. With Indian and Mexican offers in euros showing a stable premium structure by size and origin, basis opportunities may emerge if freight or FX shifts.

3-Day Indicative Outlook (Directional)

• India – New Delhi desi chana (mandis, EUR/100 kg): Stable, trading roughly in the high-50s EUR range; limited downside as long as arrivals stay thin.
• India – New Delhi export offers, main sizes (EUR/kg): Sideways around 0.78–0.90 EUR/kg; small intra-day moves possible on FX but no strong trend change expected in the next three sessions.
• Mexico – Kabuli chickpeas FOB (EUR/kg): Stable around 1.08–1.10 EUR/kg; no fresh fundamental catalyst seen for near-term repricing.