Tight Dried Fig Balance Keeps Turkish and Spanish Prices Firm

Turkish and Spanish dried fig prices are edging slightly higher but remain broadly range‑bound, supported by tight old‑crop stocks, hot and largely favourable weather, and steady export demand from Europe and alternative markets. Organic grades keep a noticeable premium, while Spanish origin trades at a discount to top Turkish organics but at a premium to conventional. Spot trading is centred on nearby export demand from the EU and MENA while buyers wait for clearer indications on the 2025/26 crop in Türkiye and Spain. The latest global balance sheets still point to historically high prices after a poor 2024/25 Turkish harvest, even though world fig production is forecast to recover in 2025/26. Very hot but mostly dry conditions in İzmir and Extremadura favour fruit drying and quality, with only localized storm risk in Malatya over the next three days.

Prices

FOB İzmir prices for Turkish organic Lerida No.4 figs are around €14.8–15.0/kg, with organic Protoben No.4/5 near €15.4/kg and organic mini figs near €16.1/kg. Conventional chopped whole No.8/9 trades around €10.7–10.8/kg, while organic fig cubes hold close to €9.6–9.7/kg. Spanish "Spanish Gold" dried figs FOB Spain are indicated slightly above €10.8/kg, leaving a €4–5/kg discount to top Turkish organic grades but a modest premium over Turkish conventional Malatya Lerida mid‑sizes.

Supply & Demand

Global dried fig supply remains constrained after a poor 2024/25 Turkish crop of about 60,000 t, which pushed export prices to record levels in 2024. The latest international balance sheet points to a recovery in 2025/26, with world production projected near 156,400 t and Turkish output around 70,000 t, yet ending stocks are expected to stay modest, preventing any sharp downside in prices.

Spain remains the largest EU fig producer, with production around 10,200–12,000 t and concentrated in Extremadura. European origin has gained share in the EU fig market as Turkish exporters diversified to North America, the Middle East and East Asia and as EU buyers faced tighter Turkish supplies and strict aflatoxin/OTA controls. This shift keeps support under Spanish prices despite their premium to some non‑EU origins.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR, ES)

In İzmir, a key Turkish dried fig region, the next three days (14–16 August) are forecast hot and mostly sunny, with daytime highs around 33–36°C and dry conditions favouring uniform drying and low disease pressure. Malatya, another Turkish dried fruit hub, is expected to see warm, partly sunny weather with highs near 28–32°C, and only a limited risk of scattered thunderstorms on Sunday, which should not materially affect overall drying progress.

Extremadura in Spain faces intense heat, with highs around 35–38°C and a heat warning in parts of the region, but with continued dry, sunny conditions that support fig ripening and drying. Overall, short‑term weather in both Türkiye and Spain is broadly supportive for quality and for completing field and drying work, reinforcing the current firm tone in prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight old‑crop stocks: Reduced 2024/25 Turkish production and modest beginning stocks for 2025/26 limit availability and keep exporters cautious in forward selling.
• Regulatory pressure: Ongoing EU–Türkiye discussions on OTA and aflatoxin in dried figs continue to shape export strategies and raise quality‑compliance costs, especially for EU‑bound product.
• Demand diversification: Turkish exporters’ shift toward non‑EU markets reduces volumes available to Europe, supporting European (including Spanish) origin prices in the single market.
• Currency and freight: A weak lira against the euro improves Turkish export competitiveness, but the structural tightness in supply means most of the currency benefit is being captured by exporters rather than fully passed on to buyers.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

• Buyers (EU/UK packers): Consider covering short‑term needs now in conventional Turkish and Spanish lots; downside looks limited in the coming weeks while weather stays supportive and stocks remain tight.
• Industrial users: For organic and speciality grades (Lerida, Protoben, mini), stagger purchases and avoid being entirely spot‑short; premiums are high but justified by constrained top‑quality supply.
• Exporters in Türkiye and Spain: Maintain a firm offer stance for nearby shipments but stay flexible on specification and shipment windows to secure volume in a still‑price‑sensitive EU demand environment.

3‑day directional price indication (EUR, FOB):

• Türkiye (İzmir, Malatya): Organic and conventional dried fig prices expected steady to slightly firmer, with any moves likely within ±1–2% as hot, dry weather underpins quality.
• Spain (Extremadura/Spanish Gold): Prices expected steady, supported by strong local heat aiding drying but tempered by limited near‑term demand growth.