Tight Indian Bajra Supplies Support Millet Prices as New Crop Nears

Bajra prices are expected to stay supported in the near term as tightened supplies from parts of Uttar Pradesh meet still‑robust demand from distilleries and feed users. Processing demand is absorbing available stocks, limiting downside until larger new‑crop arrivals come through. The millet complex is currently characterised by regionally tight spot availability in North India, firm wholesale prices across key APMC markets, and relatively steady export offers from the Black Sea and China. While the seasonal arrival of the new kharif crop should eventually ease supply tightness, current evidence suggests only limited weakness is likely in the very near term. Feed and industrial buyers are competing for volume, and merchants report that processors are willing to pay up to secure coverage ahead of heavier arrivals.

Prices

Indicative bajra prices in consuming markets around New Delhi were reported at about $25.40–26.46 per quintal on 8 September, with trade feedback emphasising that values are unlikely to weaken significantly in the immediate term as supplies from parts of Uttar Pradesh have tightened and demand remains active from both distilleries and feed users.

Across India, wholesale bajra prices are broadly firm, with national mandi averages around ₹2,350–2,420 per quintal over the last two sessions, modestly higher than a week ago and roughly 1–2% above levels a month earlier. This confirms the underlying strength indicated by the New Delhi market, where processing demand is absorbing available stocks despite expectations of incoming seasonal arrivals.

Spot and export reference levels (converted to EUR)

Note: EUR values are approximate conversions from the latest USD/UAH/CNY indications; India mandi averages are converted using typical FX and represent wholesale, not export parity.

Supply & Demand

In North India, supply from parts of Uttar Pradesh has tightened, limiting the volume reaching consuming centres such as New Delhi. Merchants note that this coincides with active procurement by distilleries and feed compounders, which has prevented any seasonal pre‑harvest softening so far and is instead keeping nearby prices underpinned.

Processing demand is currently strong enough to absorb most of the stocks on offer, with market participants reporting that arrivals remain modest ahead of the main kharif harvest. National mandi data show average arrivals paired with firm prices, particularly in Maharashtra and other western states, supporting the view that physical supply is not yet burdensome.

Weather and new‑crop outlook

Recent rainfall patterns across key bajra‑growing states have been mixed but generally adequate for late‑season crop development, and there are no major weather shocks reported in the last few days that would significantly tighten the 2026/27 supply outlook. As a result, the market still expects larger new‑crop supplies to enter mandis in the coming weeks, which should eventually cap the current firmness.

Nevertheless, any short‑term disruptions to arrivals—whether from localised weather events or logistics—could quickly translate into sharper price spikes given the currently tight spot pipeline and concentrated industrial demand.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Spot tightness: Limited supplies from Uttar Pradesh into New Delhi consuming markets are the primary driver holding bajra prices at about $25.40–26.46 per quintal, with trade expecting only limited downside before harvest pressure builds.
• Industrial and feed demand: Distilleries and feed users are actively buying, effectively competing with food and informal demand and tightening the balance between arrivals and off‑take in the spot market.
• Steady export offers: In the Black Sea, Ukrainian millet seed and kernel offers in Odesa remain broadly stable in EUR terms, suggesting that international buyers currently face a relatively flat forward curve for non‑Indian origins.
• China origin price adjustments: Chinese hulled millet offers have seen small week‑on‑week adjustments, with conventional kernels easing slightly and organic grades ticking higher, hinting at firm niche demand in higher‑value channels.

Short‑Term Forecast & Trading Outlook

Nearby bajra prices in India are likely to remain supported until larger new‑crop supplies enter the market, given the combination of tightened flows from Uttar Pradesh and active processing demand. Once arrivals pick up, some easing is probable, but the downside may be limited if distillery and feed demand remain robust.

• For domestic buyers (India): Consider covering immediate needs promptly rather than waiting for a sharp post‑harvest break, as current signals point to only moderate relief in prices when arrivals increase.
• For exporters and importers: Black Sea and Chinese offers in EUR are relatively steady; buyers may stagger purchases, but should secure at least partial Q4 coverage while global millet quotes remain stable.
• For feed and industrial users: Lock in a portion of requirements now to hedge against potential short‑term spikes if local arrivals remain patchy before the main harvest pressure materialises.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)