Tightening Ukrainian Yellow Pea Supply Faces Stubbornly Low Prices
Ukraine’s 2026 yellow pea crop is set to fall from 670 to 590 kt amid low prices and weather losses in Odesa, tightening supply but leaving FCA prices flat.
Prices & Market Snapshot
Current FCA Odesa prices in Ukraine are stable at around EUR 0.26/kg for yellow peas (98% purity) and EUR 0.33/kg for green peas (98% purity). In the UK, FOB London prices are markedly higher at about EUR 1.02/kg for bulk green peas and EUR 1.33/kg for marrowfat peas, underlining Ukraine’s strong price competitiveness in export markets.
Over the past month, Ukrainian yellow and green pea prices have been flat, with yellow peas holding at EUR 0.26/kg and green peas at EUR 0.33/kg, despite the emerging outlook for a smaller 2026 harvest. This disconnect between fundamentals and prices reflects both grower dissatisfaction and buyer caution, with many market participants waiting for clearer signals on yields and export demand.
Supply & Demand Balance
Ukraine’s yellow pea harvest in 2026 is forecast at about 590 thousand tonnes, down from roughly 670 thousand tonnes last year – a decline of almost 12%. This reduction is driven primarily by shrinking planted area as producers react to low price levels and poor profitability. For many farms, current bids do not cover risk adequately, pushing them toward alternative crops.
Weather has added a strong negative shock on top of the acreage cut. In Odesa region, winter pea crops have almost completely died, sharply reducing regional supply potential and limiting early‑season availability. While domestic feed and food demand is relatively stable, the smaller crop should tighten the exportable surplus, especially in yellow peas, over the 2026/27 marketing year.
Fundamentals & Weather Outlook
The core fundamental driver is the combination of lower planted area and weather‑related losses. The expected 590 thousand tonne crop implies tighter balance sheets and gradually diminishing stocks if exports remain at least close to last year’s levels. Farmers’ dissatisfaction with prices increases the risk of further area reduction in subsequent seasons if margins do not improve.
Short‑term weather in Odesa over the next three days points to mixed but generally non‑extreme conditions: showers and thunderstorms followed by cloudy and then mostly sunny, breezy weather, with daytime highs around 22–24°C. Such conditions are not expected to significantly change the already damaged winter crop picture, but they could support spring pea development where stands remain intact.
Trading Outlook & Strategy
- For producers (Ukraine): With low FCA prices and a clearly smaller 2026 crop, consider spacing sales and avoiding excessive early forward commitments, especially for high‑quality yellow peas. The tighter supply backdrop favours moderate price improvement later in the season.
- For exporters: Ukraine remains highly competitive versus UK and Western European origins. Locking in export positions at current differentials may be attractive, but manage logistics and geopolitical risks carefully.
- For importers: Current Ukrainian offers look opportunistic given the projected supply drop. Consider securing part of 2026/27 needs now, while keeping some flexibility to respond to further weather or policy shocks.
3‑Day Price Direction (Indicative)
- Ukraine – Odesa FCA yellow peas (EUR/kg): ~0.26, bias: sideways to slightly firmer as supply concerns gain attention but spot demand remains cautious.
- Ukraine – Odesa FCA green peas (EUR/kg): ~0.33, bias: sideways; niche and quality demand may offer modest support.
- UK – London FOB green & marrowfat peas (EUR/kg): 1.02–1.33, bias: stable; no immediate trigger for sharp moves over the next few days.