UK and Ukraine Pea Markets Hold Steady Despite Heat and Black Sea Risks

UK and Ukrainian pea prices are flat week‑on‑week, with only modest easing over June despite extreme heat in eastern England and ongoing security risks around Odesa. Price differentials between high‑value UK human‑consumption peas and competitively priced Ukrainian feed and export peas remain wide, keeping trade flows attractive where logistics allow. The market tone is broadly steady but fragile. In the UK, extreme heat and expanding drought designations in the East and South East are raising concerns about yield and quality for later pulses, but immediate physical availability is comfortable. In Ukraine, Black Sea attacks on Odesa‑area infrastructure keep a risk premium in the background, yet export channels are still operating, allowing peas to price aggressively into feed and nearby destinations. Over the next few days, weather remains hot and mostly dry in key UK pea regions, while logistics around Odesa stay operational but headline‑sensitive.

Prices

All prices below are indicative export values converted to EUR/tonne.

Across continental Europe, wholesale fresh pea prices cluster around 0.8–1.1 EUR/kg, underlining strong consumer‑side values compared with bulk dried export levels.

Supply & Demand

United Kingdom (GB)

Recent UK government drought reporting shows increasing dry‑weather stress, especially in the East and South East, with restrictions such as temporary use bans announced for parts of Kent from early July. Key pea areas in eastern England are facing prolonged warmth and limited rain, which may cap yield potential if conditions persist.

For old crop, on‑farm availability and contracted stocks remain adequate, muting nearby price reaction. New‑crop buying is cautious: processors and exporters are mostly covered short term but are monitoring pod fill and quality risks on marrowfat and green peas destined for premium snack and canning markets.

Ukraine (UA)

Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, including Odesa, remain central for grain and pulse exports, handling more than 70 million tonnes of cargo in 2025, of which over half was grain. Recent drone and missile strikes in the Odesa region have damaged some vessels and port‑related infrastructure, raising concerns over future export interruptions.

Despite these risks, pea export offers out of Odesa remain aggressive, reflecting strong competition for feed and blending slots into Europe and the Mediterranean. The wide discount versus European vegetable protein and UK peas continues to support demand, provided insurance and freight for Black Sea loadings stay manageable.

Weather Outlook (GB, UA)

GB – Eastern England

Regional forecasts for East Anglia and the East of England indicate continued above‑normal temperatures (mid‑ to high‑20s °C) and generally dry conditions over the coming week, with only isolated showers. Combined with existing soil moisture deficits highlighted in official drought summaries, this keeps moisture stress in focus for flowering and pod‑filling pea crops.

UA – Odesa Region

Short‑term weather in southern Ukraine is seasonally warm with intermittent showers; there is currently no clear extreme‑weather threat for peas around Odesa. Market risk in UA is driven more by security and logistics than by immediate weather concerns.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Feed vs food demand: EU livestock producers face broadly firm protein costs, with oilseed meals still elevated compared with historical averages. This underpins interest in competitively priced Ukrainian peas as a partial substitute where formulations allow.
• Premium UK segments: Marrowfat and high‑spec green peas in the UK are mainly driven by food and snack demand, which is relatively price‑inelastic in the short term. This supports flat FOB values despite weather‑related yield uncertainty.
• Black Sea logistics risk: Repeated attacks on Odesa‑area ports introduce an ongoing risk premium in Ukrainian export chains, but flows remain open, preventing any sharp price spike for now.
• European consumer prices: Retail and wholesale fresh pea prices in core EU markets remain well above bulk export parity, limiting downside for dried peas used in processing as long as retail demand holds.

3–7 Day Market & Trading Outlook

Trading guidance

• UK growers (GB): Consider locking in a portion of new‑crop green and marrowfat pea volumes at current historically firm levels, especially in drought‑exposed eastern areas, while keeping some upside exposure in case weather stress worsens.
• EU buyers and feed compounders: Use current flat Ukrainian yellow pea prices to secure nearby coverage, but diversify origins or shipping windows to mitigate Black Sea disruption risk.
• Traders: Maintain a weather‑ and logistics‑risk premium in forward pricing for UK and UA peas; monitor drought updates and any escalation in Odesa port attacks for potential volatility triggers.

3‑day directional price indication (EUR, basis export)

• GB – London FOB green peas: Sideways to slightly firm; hot, dry weather supports a mild risk premium but no immediate supply squeeze expected.
• GB – London FOB marrowfat peas: Sideways; niche demand and limited liquidity make sharp short‑term moves unlikely barring a major weather shock.
• UA – Odesa FCA yellow and green peas: Sideways; global feed and pulse markets are stable, with geopolitical risk more likely to affect freight and basis than flat prices over the next few days.