Soft Imported Pea Prices Despite Costly Imports and Weather Risks

Imported peas remain under pressure despite higher landed costs, as limited demand and competition from other pulses prevent any meaningful price recovery. A 30% import duty and weak consumption are curbing fresh import interest, keeping the market soft to range-bound even as monsoon risks for kharif pulses slowly build in the background. The current peas market is characterized by buyers purchasing strictly for immediate needs, cautious trade sentiment and a clear preference for fast-moving pulses like urad, tur and chana. Imported peas have slipped by roughly ₹25–50 per quintal, trading near ₹4,250–4,300 per quintal (about EUR 46–47/quintal), while domestic wet peas in parts of India hover in a similar range. At the same time, European and Black Sea dry peas show a mild easing bias in recent offers. Weather and monsoon uncertainty could later lift substitution demand for peas, but for now, processors and bulk buyers remain hesitant, keeping price action confined to a narrow band.

Prices

Imported peas in India weakened modestly over the week, with values easing by around ₹25–50 per quintal to roughly ₹4,250–4,300 per quintal, equivalent to about EUR 46–47 per metric ton at current FX levels. Despite higher import costs and a 30% duty, end-user demand has not been strong enough to support a rebound, and buying remains strictly hand-to-mouth.

Internationally, recent dry pea offers also indicate a slightly softer tone. In the UK, FOB London dried green peas are quoted near EUR 0.99/kg, with marrowfat types around EUR 1.28/kg, both marginally lower than earlier in June. From the Black Sea, Ukrainian green peas (FCA Odesa, 98% purity) have eased to about EUR 0.30/kg from EUR 0.33/kg in mid-June, while yellow peas are around EUR 0.23/kg, down from EUR 0.26/kg. In European wholesale fresh markets, shelling peas in Poland recently traded around EUR 0.84–1.05/kg without notable upward momentum.

Supply & Demand

In India, peas are currently facing clear demand-side pressure. Buyers and dal mills are purchasing only to cover nearby requirements, with minimal speculative or forward buying. This is occurring even as import costs stay elevated and import duty remains at 30%, effectively discouraging new arrivals and forcing the market to rely on existing supplies and substitution from other pulses.

Peas are widely used as a substitute in the pulses and besan industry, but soft chana prices are limiting switching from chana into peas. As long as chana remains relatively cheap, processors have little incentive to shift formulations in favour of imported peas. This substitutive relationship is a key brake on any upward price movement, despite tighter import economics. Meanwhile, within the broader pulses complex, trade interest is concentrated in quicker-moving items such as urad, tur and rajma, leaving peas in a secondary role with narrow trade volumes.

Fundamentals and Policy

The 30% import duty on peas remains a central structural factor for the market. It keeps landed costs high and has sharply reduced the attractiveness of fresh import bookings. However, because domestic demand is currently subdued and pipeline stocks are adequate, this policy has not translated into a bullish price response. Instead, the combination of duty, costly imports and lethargic offtake results in a soft to range-bound price pattern.

In substitution terms, the relative softness in chana and other pulses is depressing incremental demand for imported peas. Peas and white lobia, both used in similar industrial and food applications, are being treated by traders as side-lines compared with higher-volume pulses. Lobia itself is steady, with balanced demand and supply and a quiet tone, underscoring how pulses outside the core Indian staples are experiencing subdued trade activity. Quality differentiation remains important, with clean, uniform lots moving while lower grades trade slowly.

Weather & Monsoon Outlook

Weather is a key latent risk rather than an immediate price driver. India’s 2026 southwest monsoon has started weakly, with rainfall in June running well below normal and the seasonal forecast now pointing to around 90% of the long-period average, firmly in the below-normal category. The IMD and independent analyses highlight an elevated probability of deficient rainfall and the influence of El Niño conditions on the kharif season.

For peas, this matters primarily through substitution demand. If kharif sowing for key pulses underperforms due to delayed or erratic rains, demand for imported peas and other substitute pulses could strengthen later in the season, especially from dal mills and besan processors seeking to secure raw material. For now, however, the market is not pricing in a major shortage scenario; risk premia remain modest, and trade is waiting for clearer evidence on acreage and crop conditions.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Bias: Soft to sideways. Imported peas are likely to remain range-bound near current levels as long as chana prices stay soft and demand remains hand-to-mouth.
• Upside risks: Clear deterioration in kharif pulse prospects or a sudden firmness in chana/other pulses could quickly increase substitution demand for peas and tighten nearby availability.
• Downside risks: Any further slowdown in consumption, or liquidation of existing stocks by trade needing cash, could trigger additional short-term discounts, especially in lower grades.
• Strategy for buyers: Industrial users may continue staggered, short-cover purchasing, but could consider modest forward coverage if monsoon deficits persist into July and early price upticks appear.
• Strategy for sellers: Stock-holding traders should avoid aggressive undercutting in a thin market; focusing on quality differentiation and origin premiums can help preserve margins while waiting for clearer demand signals.

3-Day Price Indication (Direction)

• India imported peas (ex-mill, converted ≈ EUR 46–47/ton): Sideways to marginally weak, as domestic demand remains cautious and imports are already constrained by duty.
• UK dried peas (FOB, green & marrowfat): Stable with a slight downward bias after recent small declines; no strong fundamental trigger for a sharp move in the next few days.
• Black Sea (Ukraine) dried peas (FCA Odesa): Mildly soft but near short-term support levels; freight and geopolitical risks could cap further downside, keeping a broadly sideways tone.