Peas Market: Soft Spot Demand Meets Rising Weather and Currency Risks

Pea markets are trading with a soft undertone as mills and buyers focus on immediate needs, while emerging weather and currency risks in major pulse-producing regions limit downside potential for the new crop. Overall sentiment is cautious: demand along the pulses complex remains weak, but a delayed and uneven Indian monsoon under strengthening El Niño keeps forward supply risk on the radar, particularly for rain‑fed pulses that compete with peas in diets and feed rations.

Prices

European and Black Sea pea quotations have edged lower in recent weeks, mirroring the broader soft tone in pulses. In the UK, dried green peas FOB London slipped from about EUR 1.02/kg in early June to roughly EUR 0.99/kg by June 20. Marrowfat peas followed a similar pattern, easing from around EUR 1.33/kg to EUR 1.28/kg over the same period.

In Ukraine, FCA Odesa prices for bulk peas have also weakened, with green peas (98% purity) moving from roughly EUR 0.33/kg in late May to about EUR 0.30/kg by June 19, while yellow peas briefly dipped to EUR 0.23/kg before stabilising near EUR 0.26/kg. Old‑crop Canadian peas likewise show a seasonal downward trend, even as forward new‑crop values hold a small premium, signalling comfortable nearby supply but some caution on the 2026/27 balance.     

Supply & Demand

The broader pulses complex remains under pressure as dal mills in India buy only for short‑term needs and demand for chana, tur, masoor, moong and moth stays subdued. Spot prices for many of these pulses have softened on slow mill offtake, government stock releases and competitive imports, particularly for lentils. This weak backdrop weighs indirectly on peas via substitution in both human consumption and feed channels.

However, supply risk is building in the background. Kharif pulses sowing in India has started the season below last year’s pace, with acreage under key crops like moong and urad notably lower amid rainfall deficits of around one‑third versus normal in June.      Lower plantings of rain‑fed pulses could tighten South Asian availability later in the year, supporting import demand for alternative protein sources, including dry peas.

Internationally, pea supplies are currently described as comfortable, with Canadian old‑crop stocks pressuring nearby prices. Yet, forward contracts for new‑crop peas are trading modestly higher than spot values, hinting that exporters and importers see some risk to 2026/27 production and logistics.      In India, domestic peas compete with other pulses whose future availability is increasingly weather‑dependent, suggesting that today’s soft demand may not persist into the post‑harvest period if production disappoints.

Weather & FX Drivers

Weather is the main structural risk for pulses and, by extension, for peas. El Niño conditions have now emerged and are expected to strengthen through the June–September monsoon season, raising the probability of below‑normal rainfall in India.      Early in the season, cumulative rainfall has been about 30–35% below normal, with particularly large deficits in central and eastern states that are key for kharif pulses.     

If this weak monsoon pattern persists, sowing of urad, tur, moong and moth in major producing states such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Karnataka could remain below normal. That would tighten regional protein supplies later in the season and potentially lift demand for imported peas as a relatively price‑competitive substitute.

On the currency side, a weak Indian rupee against the US dollar keeps landed costs for imported pulses elevated, even as international quotations soften. Recent levels around INR 94.6 per USD make imports of peas and other pulses more expensive in local terms, limiting the scope for further price declines and cushioning downside risk in export‑origin EUR prices.

Fundamentals & Outlook

Fundamentally, the peas market sits between soft near‑term demand and rising forward risk. Immediate consumption is sluggish in many pulse segments, and wholesale prices for both peas and competing pulses have drifted lower. Comfortable old‑crop stocks in exporting regions reinforce this bearish short‑term tone.

Yet the balance is fragile. A continued weak or erratic monsoon and below‑par kharif sowing in India, combined with ongoing El Niño uncertainty, could quickly flip sentiment if crop outlooks deteriorate. In that scenario, peas would likely benefit from renewed buying interest as importers seek to secure protein supplies before any broader pulses rally gains traction.

Conversely, if rains normalise over the next few weeks and sowing catches up, the current soft trend in peas is likely to persist, with prices tracking a relatively narrow range into the new‑crop period.

Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Buy‑side (importers, feed and food industry): Use current EUR price weakness in UK and Black Sea peas to extend coverage modestly into Q3, but stagger purchases to retain flexibility in case monsoon conditions improve and prices drift lower.
• Producers and exporters: Avoid aggressive under‑pricing of forward sales; consider scaling in hedges rather than selling large volumes at once, as El Niño‑related pulses tightness could improve pricing power later in the season.
• Speculative participants: Bias towards a cautiously bullish stance on deferred contracts, with tight risk limits. Look for confirmation of continued rainfall deficits or further evidence of sharply lower kharif pulses acreage before adding length.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• UK dried peas (green, marrowfat, FOB): Slightly bearish to sideways; weak local demand and comfortable supply point to a narrow trading band around current levels, with limited downside due to currency and pulses risk.
• Ukraine dried peas (green and yellow, FCA Odesa): Sideways bias; recent declines likely pause as exporters weigh logistics and global pulses risk, but no strong catalyst for a near‑term rebound.
• Global forward markets (Canada, EU): Sideways to mildly firmer on new‑crop positions, reflecting weather and El Niño uncertainty, while old‑crop values remain under modest pressure.