Turkey’s Sunflower Seed Pivot Puts Pressure on Black Sea Prices

Turkey’s aggressive shift toward sunflower seed imports and away from oil is capping upside in Black Sea seed values, even as crushers in the region eye higher throughput into the new season. Sunflower markets are currently shaped by Turkey’s plan to raise seed imports to around 2 million tonnes while reducing sunflower oil purchases to roughly 400,000 tonnes. Ukraine is emerging as a key supplier via Danube ports and truck shipments, with 300,000–400,000 tonnes of seeds already contracted. Last week, CIF Marmara contract prices slipped to about $655/tonne, reflecting buyers’ strong bargaining position amid ample regional availability and muted nearby oil demand.

Prices

In Turkey, sunflower seed values into Marmara have eased to roughly $655/tonne CIF, equivalent to around €603/tonne at current FX, signalling mild downward pressure from buyers.

In Ukraine, spot black sunflower seed prices stand near €0.44–0.45/kg FCA (Odesa, Kyiv), while FOB Odesa is around €0.583/kg, slightly lower than earlier this month. This aligns with Turkey’s cheaper import coverage and abundant regional seed supply.

Supply & Demand

Turkey’s import programme is the key driver: expected seed inflows of up to 2 million tonnes, versus lower sunflower oil imports near 400,000 tonnes, are redirecting trade flows toward raw seeds. Ukraine is already supplying 300,000–400,000 tonnes via Danube coasters and trucks, underlining strong logistical connectivity.

This pattern favours Ukrainian crushers and traders that can monetise seeds rather than oil, but it also increases competition among Black Sea origins to win Turkish demand. With oil purchases scaled back, regional oil markets face softer demand growth, which limits any strong rally in crush margins and keeps seed prices in check.

Fundamentals

The widening seed import window in Turkey effectively boosts demand for Black Sea seed, yet the associated cut in oil imports tempers overall complex tightness. As Turkish buyers secure large volumes at around €600/tonne CIF, origin prices in Ukraine and neighbouring suppliers are gravitating to levels that preserve crush margins while remaining competitive.

Current Ukrainian values around €440–450/tonne FCA and roughly €583/tonne FOB Odesa indicate modest downside from early September, consistent with last week’s softer CIF Marmara contracts. The margin signal favours steady crush and seed shipments over oil exports into Turkey in the near term.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Seed sellers (Ukraine/Black Sea): Consider forward sales into Turkey on price rallies toward CIF Marmara parity, as the 2 million tonne import target suggests sustained demand but buyers retain price leverage.
• Turkish crushers: Current levels near €600/tonne CIF offer room to lock in margins, especially if oil demand remains subdued; layering coverage now reduces exposure to potential logistics disruptions in the Black Sea.
• Oil buyers: With Turkey pivoting to seeds, nearby sunflower oil markets may stay relatively well supplied; deferred buying remains an option unless competing vegetable oils firm sharply.

3-Day Price Indication (EUR)

• Ukraine, FCA domestic (Odesa/Kyiv): Sideways to slightly weak around €0.44–0.45/kg as Turkish demand is largely pre-covered at lower CIF levels.
• Ukraine, FOB Odesa: Stable to marginally softer near €0.58/kg, tracking CIF Marmara benchmarks and regional competition.
• Turkey, CIF Marmara (implied): Around €600/tonne with limited upside in the very short term given comfortable contracted volumes.