Turkish Dried Apricots: Flat Farmgate, Slightly Softer EU Cube Prices
Turkish dried apricot prices stay firm FOB Malatya while EU warehouse cubes soften slightly. Weather is benign; short-term outlook stable to mildly soft.
Prices & Spreads
Recent indications for Turkish-origin dried apricots show:
FOB farmgate and processor offers from Malatya and Ankara for both sulphured and unsulphured whole fruit have been flat in recent updates, while EU stockholder prices for industrial cubes in the Netherlands have edged lower over the last fortnight. This points to a modest softening in nearby European demand rather than a structural shift at origin.
Supply, Demand & Weather
Turkey maintains its position as the dominant global supplier of dried apricots, with Malatya alone accounting for the overwhelming share of both national and world output, supported by extensive orchard area and modern processing capacity. Multiple exporters in Malatya report normal operations and continued focus on export markets in the EU, Middle East and Asia, confirming that supply chains are functioning smoothly at the start of June.
In Q1 2026, Malatya’s dried apricot exports generated around USD 66 million despite earlier frost impacts in 2025, indicating that stock levels and ongoing shipments remain significant. Downstream demand from health-oriented snack and ingredient segments in Europe and North America is firm but not aggressively expanding, with buyers showing price sensitivity and a preference for just-in-time coverage rather than forward length.
Short-term weather (3 days, 3–5 June 2026): Malatya is forecast to see mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with highs around 27–29°C and only isolated thunderstorms, while Ankara experiences similar temperatures with limited convective showers. These conditions are seasonally normal and supportive for fruit development and drying; no acute weather risk premium is warranted at this stage.
Fundamentals & Risks
- Stocks & carry-in: Export earnings and stable FOB offers imply that carry-in stocks from the previous crop are adequate, preventing any squeeze at origin but also capping downside as processors manage pipeline flows.
- Quality & compliance: Import markets continue to monitor contaminants, including ochratoxin and other residues, and non-compliance can trigger border rejections and reputational damage for Turkish dried apricots. This encourages disciplined handling and slightly supports premiums for reputable exporters.
- Macro & currency: A structurally weak lira supports export competitiveness in EUR terms, helping Turkish suppliers defend market share even against rising costs, while allowing EU import prices to drift slightly without forcing sharp FOB moves.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- For importers/roasters (EU): Current FCA levels for Turkish cubes in the Netherlands show a mild downward bias; consider covering near-term needs now, but keep some flexibility for additional buying if summer demand proves softer than expected.
- For Turkish packers/exporters: With stable FOB whole-fruit values and benign weather, maintain offered price lists but remain open to small tactical discounts on industrial grades to support warehouse drawdowns in the EU.
- For industrial buyers (confectionery, cereal): The small recent easing in cube prices suggests limited downside from here; use any further dips to extend coverage into early Q3, especially on consistent Malatya quality lots.
3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction Only)
- Malatya FOB whole (sulphured & unsulphured): Prices expected to remain steady over the next three days, with no weather or policy shocks in view.
- EU (Dordrecht, NL) FCA cubes: Mildly soft tone likely to persist, but further declines should be incremental rather than sharp.
- Lodz (PL) FCA whole no:8: Indications likely to stay flat, tracking stable Turkish FOB plus unchanged logistics and demand conditions.