Turkish Dried Apricots: Slow Export Pickup Under Cost Pressure

Exports of Turkish dried apricots are starting to increase, but sales prices remain under pressure from rising production and logistics costs. Market participants are closely watching if and when the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will intervene, as farmers view state procurement as key to stabilising returns. Demand for apricot kernels has strengthened, providing an important alternative cash source while dried fruit prices lag farmers’ expectations. At the same time, a rainy and humid near-term weather outlook in Malatya adds uncertainty around drying conditions and quality. Overall, the market is in a fragile balance: export flow is improving, but producer confidence will likely hinge on policy signals and the ability to achieve higher price levels in the coming weeks.

Prices

Dried apricot prices in Türkiye are essentially stable week-on-week but remain below levels farmers consider satisfactory, especially against higher input and labour costs.

Export quotations from Malatya and Ankara show a clear discount for sulphured fruit versus unsulphured and organic grades, reflecting ongoing price sensitivity on the demand side. European FCA levels in the Netherlands are broadly aligned with Turkish FOB values once logistics are accounted for, underlining that there has been no strong upward correction so far.

Supply & Demand

Exports of dried apricots from Türkiye have begun to rise, but the pace is described as slow. This suggests that international demand is present yet cautious, with buyers likely aware that farmers are dissatisfied with current prices and may hope for later-season opportunities.

On the supply side, farmers are under pressure from higher production and handling costs. Because market prices are not keeping pace with these costs, many growers are actively marketing apricot kernels as an additional revenue stream. This parallel activity in kernels indicates a need for liquidity at farm level and reduces growers’ willingness to commit large dried fruit volumes at today’s bids.

Fundamentals & Policy Watch

The central fundamental uncertainty is the role of the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). Farmers are still waiting for TMO to announce procurement volumes and price levels, and the continued silence is reinforcing a defensive stance among producers. Any future intervention is likely to be a key turning point for price direction and market confidence.

With exports slowly improving but producer selling interest constrained, nearby physical availability is adequate but not burdensome. The market appears to be searching for a clearing price that balances exporters’ competitiveness with farmers’ cost realities. Until TMO policy becomes clearer, this tension is expected to cap significant downside while also limiting any sharp rally.

Weather Outlook

The forecast for the coming week in Malatya is rainy and humid, conditions that are generally unfavourable for drying and can pose quality risks if they persist during the post-harvest period. This environment may slow the movement of fresh product into dried form and give farmers another reason to delay additional sales.

Should humidity remain elevated, exporters may become more selective on quality, and premiums for well-dried, clean lots could widen modestly over the short term. However, at this stage the main driver of market sentiment remains pricing policy rather than weather-related supply losses.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Consider covering nearby needs at current levels, as prices are historically under pressure while upside risk from a potential TMO intervention remains.
• Farmers: Maintaining a paced selling strategy appears prudent until there is clarity on TMO procurement; kernels can continue to be used to generate interim liquidity.
• Exporters: Focus on quality differentiation and flexible shipment options to capture gradual export demand without overcommitting inventory ahead of policy signals.

3-Day Market Indication

• Türkiye FOB dried apricots: Sideways, with a slightly firm undertone if rains disrupt drying or if TMO intervention rumours intensify.
• EU FCA (Netherlands) positions: Largely stable, tracking Turkish offers and logistics costs, with limited scope for immediate downside.