Turkish Dried Fig Prices Hold Steady as Export Demand Stays Balanced

Turkish dried fig prices in Malatya are broadly stable, with only marginal adjustments over recent weeks and no clear upward or downward breakout. The current market points to balanced export demand and comfortable spot availability, with weather in eastern Türkiye neutral for the short term and no immediate supply shock on the radar.

Export interest from Europe and the Middle East remains firm but not overheated, keeping sellers disciplined on offers while buyers show limited urgency to chase higher levels. With the main crop well behind and no fresh fundamental surprise, trading is dominated by nearby shipment negotiations and selective restocking. Price spreads between natural and Lerida types, and across calibres, remain relatively tight, underlining a sideways market bias for now.

📈 Prices & Spreads

FOB Malatya prices for Turkish dried figs are currently in a narrow and steady band. Natural types trade roughly between EUR 7.8–9.6 per kg depending on calibre, while Lerida types range around EUR 7.4–10.9 per kg. The structure shows a normal, gradual premium for larger sizes and for Lerida packing at the top end, with no sign of panic selling or shortage pricing.

Over the last three weeks, quotations for most sizes have been flat, with only token 0.01–0.05 EUR/kg adjustments on some Lerida grades earlier in March. This confirms that the sharp price spikes seen during the 2024 supply squeeze have eased, in line with reports that European importers faced record prices last year but are now seeing more manageable levels as Turkish supply normalises.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of dried figs, holding by far the largest share of world production and exports, with Europe still its key outlet even though the EU share of Turkish exports has gradually declined in recent years. Exporters continue to diversify into North America, the Middle East and East Asia, which has reduced dependence on European buyers and made the market less vulnerable to any one region’s demand swings.

Following a smaller 2024/25 crop that pushed export prices sharply higher, industry assessments now point to a more comfortable supply balance and expectations of higher output in the 2025/26 season, contingent on favourable weather during fruit development. At the same time, ongoing efforts to tackle aflatoxin—such as dedicated collection and energy-recovery schemes for contaminated figs—are helping keep exportable quality stable and protect Turkey’s reputation in high-standard markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Short-term fundamentals in Malatya and other producing regions are calm. The harvest is long completed, and current trade is driven by stock management and logistics rather than by crop uncertainty. Weather in Malatya over the next three days is seasonally cool and mostly cloudy, with some showers: highs around 11–17°C and lows near 4–5°C, including light rain on March 25 and a drier, partly sunny outlook by March 27.

These conditions are close to normal for late March and pose no immediate threat to fig orchards as trees are still in early vegetative stages. As a result, weather is not adding a risk premium to prices at this time. The main structural support to the market instead comes from still-relatively-high global price levels after last year’s tightness and from persistent, if slightly moderated, European demand for Turkish figs.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price trend (next 3–5 days): Sideways. With no fresh fundamental news and normal late-March weather, FOB Malatya prices are likely to remain in their current band, with any moves limited to a few euro cents per kg.
• For buyers: Current levels look reasonable given last year’s highs; consider covering near-term and part of Q2 needs now, while keeping some flexibility for potential softening if a larger 2025/26 crop is confirmed later in the year.
• For sellers: Maintain price discipline on premium calibres and Lerida pack, as global demand remains solid and quality-controlled supply cannot be expanded quickly. Discounting aggressively appears unnecessary in the present balance.
• Risk watch: Monitor upcoming bloom and fruit-setting weather in western and central Türkiye during April–May, and any new updates from exporters’ associations on 2025/26 crop expectations or aflatoxin control policies.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (FOB Malatya, TR)

Product	Type	Calibre range	Indicative price (EUR/kg)	3-day bias
Figs dried	Natural	No. 5–7	≈ 7.8–8.2 EUR/kg FOB	Stable
Figs dried	Natural	No. 1–4	≈ 8.8–9.6 EUR/kg FOB	Stable
Figs dried	Lerida	No. 5–7	≈ 7.4–8.8 EUR/kg FOB	Stable
Figs dried	Lerida	No. 1–4	≈ 9.3–10.9 EUR/kg FOB	Stable