Turkish Dried Figs: Export Slowdown Despite Stable Euro Prices

Exports of Turkish figs from the Aegean Region are losing momentum in early 2026, even as euro‑denominated export prices for dried figs remain broadly stable. Last year’s adverse weather is now clearly visible in export statistics, while real exchange rate pressure and higher costs are eroding exporters’ competitiveness.

Since the turn of the year, Aegean provinces show a mixed but overall weaker export picture, with key fig producer Aydın already posting a decline. At the same time, Malatya FOB offers for Turkish dried figs in EUR have moved sideways through March, suggesting that exporters are absorbing cost and currency pressure rather than passing it fully into prices. This combination points to tighter producer margins, cautious buying interest, and a market that is fundamentally under supply and FX stress rather than in a classical price rally.

📈 Prices

Current FOB export offers from Malatya for conventional Turkish dried figs are broadly flat compared with early March, with no visible week‑on‑week increase in euro terms. The price curve remains clearly quality‑differentiated, but each size band is essentially unchanged from previous updates, underlining a sideways market.

Product	Type / Size	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
Figs dried	No. 7, lerida	Malatya, FOB	7.6
Figs dried	No. 5, natural	Malatya, FOB	8.2
Figs dried	No. 1, natural	Malatya, FOB	9.6

Across the full range of Malatya offers, lerida types trade roughly between EUR 7.4–10.9/kg FOB, while natural types are indicated around EUR 7.8–9.6/kg FOB, with prices essentially identical to levels seen since early March. The lack of price movement despite export pressure suggests limited immediate demand elasticity and stronger competition from other origins or substitute dried fruit.

🌍 Supply & Demand

The Aegean Region, core hub for Turkish dried fig exports, is clearly feeling the lagged impact of last year’s weather. Regional exports have fallen compared with previous years, and Aydın, the traditional capital of dried figs, has already recorded a 1% drop in exports from USD 153 million to 151 million in February year‑on‑year.

The broader export landscape reinforces this weakness: Izmir’s exports slid by 9.5% in the first two months of 2026, from USD 3.649 billion to 3.301 billion, while Manisa, the region’s second‑largest exporter, saw February export earnings fall by 8%. Afyonkarahisar posted the sharpest contraction, with exports plunging 52% year‑on‑year in February, highlighting how weather‑related and cost pressures are hitting inland processing and logistics chains.

Not all provinces are contracting, however. Denizli increased exports by 9.3% to USD 375 million, Muğla maintained a robust 9% rise to USD 107.5 million, and Kütahya and Uşak both posted moderate gains. These pockets of growth likely reflect more diversified export baskets and less direct dependence on dried figs, underlining that the weakness is concentrated in fig‑heavy areas such as Aydın rather than uniformly across all Aegean exports.

📊 Fundamentals & Cost Environment

Exporters across the Aegean report increasing difficulty competing globally due to a strong real exchange rate and rising production, labor, and logistics costs. With euro‑based export offers for dried figs largely flat, the implication is that margins are being squeezed rather than prices being allowed to adjust upward in line with domestic cost inflation.

In Aydın and other fig‑focused provinces, the combination of last year’s adverse weather and today’s cost‑FX squeeze is particularly problematic. Weather‑related yield and quality constraints reduce exportable volumes, while exporters are constrained in their ability to raise euro prices without losing market share. This creates a risk of under‑investment in orchards and processing capacity if low profitability persists through 2026.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook

In the near term, the dried figs market is likely to remain range‑bound in euro terms. The recent export data confirm structural pressure on supply from key Aegean provinces, yet international demand does not appear strong enough to trigger an immediate price spike, as evidenced by stable Malatya FOB offers across March.

As the market moves towards the next crop, the balance between potential recovery in Aegean yields and persistent cost and FX headwinds will be critical. If weather in coming months is benign and the exchange rate remains unfavorable for exporters, the incentive will be to prioritize volumes and market share, keeping euro prices capped but margins thin.

💡 Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Use the current sideways price environment in EUR to secure medium‑term coverage, especially for higher‑quality natural and lerida grades, as supply risks from Aydın could resurface ahead of the next crop.
• Exporters: Focus on cost control and value‑added product differentiation rather than aggressive price hikes, as the combination of real exchange rate pressure and weak export growth limits room for further price increases.
• Industry Users: Consider diversifying origins or blends to mitigate potential availability issues from Aegean provinces most affected by weather and structural export declines.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Malatya (TR), dried figs FOB: Prices expected to remain stable in the next 3 days within current ranges (approx. EUR 7.4–10.9/kg depending on type and size), with no strong drivers for immediate upward or downward moves.