Turkish Dried Figs: Flat FOB Malatya Prices as Buyers Trade Hand‑to‑Mouth

Turkish dried fig FOB prices in Malatya are unchanged week‑on‑week, with a stable size differential and no clear directional breakout. Near‑term risks are slightly skewed to the upside given Turkey’s dominant share of world dried fig supply and still‑firm global dried fruit demand.

After a sharp correction on Lerida grades earlier in April, the dried fig market has shifted into a sideways phase. Exporters are quoting steady FOB levels on both natural and Lerida styles, while buyers in Europe and the Middle East largely cover nearby needs only. A mild, seasonally normal 3‑day weather outlook for Malatya removes immediate frost risk, but attention will remain on broader Aegean fig orchards as the 2026/27 crop develops. Export statistics confirm that dried fruit shipments – including figs – stayed robust in Q1 2026, underlining the absence of any demand shock.

📈 Prices & Differentials

All prices below are FOB Malatya, converted from USD to EUR at ~1.07 USD/EUR for reference.

Product	Grade	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Move
Dried figs	Natural No. 7–1	≈7.10–9.00	Stable
Dried figs	Lerida No. 7–1	≈6.95–9.35	Stable after early‑April drop

Price spreads between smaller No. 6–7 and larger No. 1–2 remain historically wide but unchanged over the last week, indicating no fresh squeeze on premium sizes. The earlier April step‑down on Lerida 1–4 now looks fully absorbed, with current offers aligned to a broadly sideways dried fruit complex out of Turkey, where related categories such as dried apricots and raisins are also firm but not rallying.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey retains its position as the clear leader in dried figs, accounting for more than 60% of global production, mainly from the Aegean fig belt, with Malatya acting as a key inland export hub and pricing reference.

Recent export data for Turkey’s dried fruit and processed foods sector show Q1 2026 revenues of about USD 404 million, with dried figs contributing roughly USD 97 million, underscoring still‑solid international demand. Europe remains the primary destination, and there is no sign of a sudden slowdown in orders.

Global fundamentals are moderately supportive: industry estimates for 2025/26 point to a higher Turkish fig crop and increased ending stocks versus the previous season, but consumption growth keeps overall supply‑demand reasonably balanced. This combination tends to cap upside spikes yet argues against a deep price correction, especially while broader dried fruit prices (apricots, raisins) stay elevated due to earlier weather shocks and tight stocks.

🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook (Region: TR)

For Malatya, the 3‑day forecast (23–25 April 2026) points to mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with daytime highs around 18–19°C and nighttime lows in the 6–8°C range. One day carries a risk of scattered thundershowers, but no severe cold is expected.

These mild conditions are broadly favourable for orchards and reduce immediate concerns about late frost damage to stone fruits and figs in adjacent production zones. Market commentary across Turkish dried fruit segments suggests that, after last year’s frost‑driven losses in Malatya apricots, exporters are highly sensitive to any adverse weather headlines; for now, that risk premium is subdued rather than escalating.

📊 Market Drivers & Risks

• Stock situation: Industry data indicate rising Turkish dried fig production and higher projected ending stocks in 2025/26, which temper bullish momentum but still sit against firm underlying demand.
• Demand profile: Q1 2026 export earnings confirm that dried figs remain a key revenue contributor among Turkish dried fruits, with Europe anchoring offtake and no visible collapse in orders despite high price levels.
• Competing origins: Iran, Afghanistan and Mediterranean suppliers add volume at lower price points, but quality and food‑safety requirements in the EU continue to favour Turkish product for many branded applications.
• Cross‑commodity signals: Nearby stability in Turkish raisins and firm but steady dried apricot prices reinforce the impression of a plateau phase in the country’s dried fruit complex rather than a new rally leg.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For importers: Use current flat prices to tidy up Q2 coverage, especially on preferred larger sizes (No. 1–3) where differentials are reasonable. Avoid over‑extending into Q4 unless weather risks increase; the fundamental picture does not yet justify aggressive forward buying.
• For Turkish packers/exporters: Maintain offer discipline and focus on quality differentiation rather than price cuts. With global stocks improving but not excessive, under‑pricing high‑quality lots would be premature.
• For traders: The near‑term setup favours range‑trading rather than strong directional bets. Watch for any negative weather news from Aegean fig orchards or fresh EU demand surprises as potential catalysts for a break from the current sideways pattern.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication (Direction)

• FOB Malatya – Natural figs (all sizes): Stable in EUR terms; narrow intraday moves only, no clear trend change expected in the next 3 days.
• FOB Malatya – Lerida figs (all sizes): Stable to slightly firmer tone after recent correction, but no significant EUR price shift anticipated over 23–25 April.