Turkish Dried Figs Hold Firm as Hot, Dry Weather Supports Quality

Turkish dried fig prices are holding firm with a slight upward bias for premium organic grades FOB İzmir, supported by tightening old-crop stocks and a generally favourable, hot and dry weather pattern in key growing areas. Market activity is moderate as buyers weigh relatively steady Turkish offers against more competitive Mediterranean origins, but limited seller pressure and strong quality expectations into the new crop are preventing any meaningful price correction. High temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions in western Türkiye and Malatya are positive for fig tree development and drying prospects, while not yet extreme enough to threaten orchards. With export demand stable and global dried fig availability comfortable but not burdensome, the near-term outlook points to sideways-to-firm pricing, especially for organic and speciality cuts.

Prices & Differentials

Current spot indications for Turkish dried figs (FOB, converted to EUR at approx. 1.07 USD/EUR where needed) show:

Global context remains broadly supportive: recent international commentary highlights firm dried fig prices as old‑crop stocks dwindle, with market confidence underpinned by expectations of a solid 2025/26 Turkish crop and higher projected world fig supply versus 2024/25. Export unit values in competing Mediterranean origins such as Greece are also higher year-on-year, indicating no major low‑price alternative to Turkish material.

Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers (TR)

Türkiye remains the dominant global dried fig supplier, with recent industry estimates placing its share of world production well above 50% and exports around 70 thousand tonnes in recent seasons. While detailed June export figures by product are not yet available, preliminary May trade data show a year-on-year decline in Türkiye’s total exports across all goods, suggesting a more selective export pace and no aggressive discounting pressure from fig shippers.

Weather in the Aegean coastal belt (İzmir region) over 21–23 June is forecast hot and dry, with maximum temperatures around 34–35°C and clear skies. This pattern is broadly favourable for fig fruit set and later on for sun‑drying, supporting expectations for good quality and low disease pressure at this stage.

In inland eastern regions such as Malatya, conditions are also seasonally warm and mostly dry, with highs near 30–32°C and only a low risk of isolated thundershowers. Recent local news has focused on fires, infrastructure works and seismic activity rather than any widespread weather damage to orchards, indicating no acute production threat presently for dried fruit trees, including figs.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Global dried fig fundamentals into 2025/26 point to rising total supply and a build‑up of ending stocks versus 2024/25, mainly thanks to higher expected production in Türkiye and several secondary origins. However, the current season started with relatively low old-crop inventories, and recent reports emphasise that these stocks continue to tighten, helping keep prices firm rather than oversupplied.

Demand from Europe and other key import regions is steady, supported by ongoing use of figs in snacking, bakery and ingredient applications. Competing dried fruits (apricots, raisins, dates) are not showing enough sustained price weakness to force aggressive substitution away from figs; in some cases, price corrections in other dried fruits have already occurred earlier in the year. As a result, Turkish exporters can defend current offer levels, particularly on higher‑value organic lines ex‑İzmir.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

For the next 1–2 weeks, the balance of risks for Turkish dried fig prices remains mildly to the upside, especially for organic whole grades and speciality cuts, with conventional Lerida and natural grades expected to trade in a relatively narrow range.

Trading outlook (EUR-based)

• Industrial buyers / food manufacturers: Consider covering at least 2–3 months of requirements in conventional Lerida and natural grades while FOB Malatya levels around 6–9 EUR/kg remain stable; upside risk is moderate if new-crop weather stays benign.
• Buyers of organic figs: Premiums ex‑İzmir at ~15–16 EUR/kg are high but justified by firm global demand and limited certified supply; staggered buying is advised rather than waiting for a major correction that appears unlikely near term.
• Exporters / packers in Türkiye: With hot, supportive weather and tightening old-crop stocks reported globally, maintain offer discipline; only consider small tactical discounts on lower grades to manage warehouse space and cash flow.

3‑Day Price Direction (FOB, TR)

• İzmir (organic figs, all listed grades): Stable to slightly firmer over the next three days, supported by tight high‑quality supply and firm international benchmarks.
• Malatya (conventional natural & Lerida): Largely stable, with a slight firming bias on popular middle grades if nearby export demand picks up; no weather‑driven pressure expected.