Turkish Dried Figs Hold Firm as New-Crop Harvest Starts in Aegean

Turkish dried fig prices are broadly steady to slightly firmer as the 2026/27 new-crop harvest gets underway in the Aegean, with only marginal adjustments across key grades and limited spot liquidity. Stable weather in Aydın–İzmir supports quality and yield expectations, keeping sellers in no rush to discount. Early new-crop offers from western Türkiye signal a sideways market: conventional Lerida and natural grades remain clustered in the mid‑single to low‑double‑digit EUR/kg FOB range, while organic specialties continue to command a clear premium. Strong export orientation and diversified markets keep underlying demand resilient, even as European buyers remain selective. Weather in the main fig belt is seasonally hot and dry but without major stress so far, underpinning expectations for at least a normal crop. With shipping conditions relatively calm, near‑term price risk looks skewed mildly to the upside unless a late‑season weather or quality shock emerges.

Prices

Recent Turkish dried fig quotes, converted to FOB EUR terms, indicate a largely unchanged market over the past week. Standard non‑organic Lerida and natural grades from Malatya are trading in an approximate range of EUR 6.0–9.0/kg FOB, depending on size and specification, with no meaningful week‑on‑week moves implied by the latest indications.

Organic fig cubes and specialty presentations from İzmir remain significantly higher, broadly in the EUR 9.5–16.0/kg FOB band, reflecting tighter availability and stronger niche demand. The very small declines seen in a few premium organic lines (on the order of EUR 0.03/kg) suggest technical adjustments rather than a change in trend. Overall, the fig complex in Türkiye currently shows a flat to slightly firmer tone as harvest advances.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Türkiye remains the dominant global dried fig exporter, with around half of world exports in recent years and roughly 80% of domestic dried fig output shipped overseas. Production is heavily concentrated in the Aydın and İzmir provinces, where most figs are destined for drying, providing scale and relatively predictable export availability.

European demand is structurally important but has become more diversified: Europe still takes close to half of global dried fig imports, while Türkiye has expanded exports into North America, the Middle East and East Asia. Quality controls and aflatoxin‑related risk management remain a key filter for EU‑bound volumes, encouraging some Turkish shippers to cultivate alternative markets, but overall export demand into 2026 appears firm, particularly for higher‑quality and organic lots.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook (TR)

The core dried fig belt in western Türkiye, around Aydın and İzmir, is entering peak harvest with seasonally hot, largely dry conditions. Harvest of drying figs typically starts in mid‑August and runs through early October, with August–September generally delivering the best mix of quality and prices when weather is cooperative.

Short‑term forecasts for the Aegean region point to continued high temperatures and limited rainfall over the next few days, conditions that generally support efficient sun‑drying and reduce disease pressure, provided excessive heat or late localized showers do not materialize. No major disruptions to the 2026/27 crop have been flagged in recent trade and industry commentary, so market participants are currently working off an assumption of at least a normal, possibly slightly improved, production profile versus last season.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export‑oriented balance: With roughly four‑fifths of dried fig output exported, Turkish prices are highly sensitive to shifts in import demand from Europe and emerging markets.
• European competition, but not dominance: Spain, Greece and Italy have modest but growing dried fig production, yet they cannot match Turkish volumes and generally offer higher prices, keeping Türkiye the price reference for industrial and bulk segments.
• Quality and safety filters: EU border controls and RASFF notifications on aflatoxins remain a structural constraint for some Turkish exporters, pushing them either to improve quality systems or pivot more volume towards less stringent markets.
• Seasonal price pattern: New‑crop availability from the Aegean typically leads to a modest easing in spot prices in early harvest, followed by stabilization or gradual firming as top qualities are sold and second‑tier lots dominate later in the season.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View (TR)

Strategic guidance (short term, 1–3 weeks):

• Buyers: Consider layering in cover for standard Lerida and natural grades at current levels, as stable weather and limited downside suggest a relatively low entry risk. Prioritize early‑harvest lots for better sizing and colour.
• Organic & premium segments: Premium organic and specialty grades are likely to remain tight and price‑resilient; opportunistic dips of a few eurocents per kg can be used to extend coverage into Q4.
• Sellers: With no clear bearish trigger, there is room to hold offers steady and resist discounts, especially on export‑quality sizes and aflatoxin‑certified lots destined for the EU.

3‑day directional price indication (TR, dried figs):

• Western Türkiye (Aydın/İzmir, FOB): Sideways to slightly firmer bias (0 to +1% range) as harvest picks up and first export fixings are concluded.
• Eastern supply routes via Malatya (FOB): Largely stable (−0.5 to +0.5%), with any changes likely driven by quality differentials rather than broad market moves.
• Delivered Europe (CIF, TR origin industrial dices/cubes): Mostly steady, tracking FOB Turkish values plus unchanged freight and insurance premiums.