Turkish Dried Figs Hold Steady Amid Quality Alerts and Softer Export Demand

Turkish dried fig FOB prices in Malatya are stable at the start of April, with no week‑on‑week changes across main natural and Lerida sizes. The market tone is cautious, however, as exporters face weaker overseas demand and renewed scrutiny over ochratoxin A alerts in the EU.

The price structure remains clearly graded: natural figs hover around EUR 7.0–8.9/kg FOB for sizes No. 7–1, while Lerida presentations command a modest premium, roughly EUR 7.0–10.2/kg FOB. This relative steadiness suggests that, for now, ample stock and hesitant foreign buying are offsetting the supportive impact of tighter global dried fruit supply and lingering quality concerns from the last seasons. In the short term, exporters are focused on quality compliance and niche demand, while buyers retain bargaining power on volume deals.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Dried fig prices in Malatya (FOB, Turkey origin) have been flat for at least the past two weeks across both natural and Lerida grades, indicating a sideways market with limited fresh buying or selling pressure. Current levels roughly translate into the mid–upper single‑digit EUR/kg range, depending on size and presentation, with larger sizes and Lerida type priced at a premium.

This stability is notable given the broader Turkish food export context: an economy still expanding its overall export base but facing a decline in external demand momentum, as shown by the national Export Demand Index drop in February 2026. For figs, the combination of adequate warehouse stocks and risk‑averse importers, particularly in Europe, appears to be capping any near‑term upside despite structurally tighter global dried fig supply.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of dried figs, accounting for roughly half of world production in recent seasons. However, its share of European dried fig imports has already been trending down, with recent analysis noting a decline in Turkey’s volume share from about 72% to lower levels as buyers diversify to alternative origins such as Iran and Afghanistan.

The latest (Q1 2026) EU food safety review reports that about 90% of ochratoxin A alerts in the fruit and vegetable segment have been linked to Turkish dried figs. This high alert concentration is reinforcing stringent border checks and encouraging some European buyers to split volumes between Turkey and competing origins, dampening spot demand for Turkish supplies even as global dried fig consumption continues to grow.

At the macro level, Turkey’s food exports remain strong, with dried figs historically contributing materially to export earnings, but the broader export demand slowdown in early 2026 points to more cautious international ordering patterns. Import demand signals from key Asian markets are also mixed: China’s imports of fresh or dried figs fell by about 27% in volume in 2024, squeezing growth in what had been a promising destination for Mediterranean suppliers.

📊 Fundamentals & Risk Factors

From a fundamental perspective, the medium‑term backdrop for Turkish dried figs is still constrained supply. Earlier industry reviews documented reduced production in the 2024/25 season due to drought, frost and quality losses, and while a partial recovery is expected in 2025/26, total output is still projected below longer‑term averages. At the same time, structural demand drivers—health‑focused snacking and bakery use—support gradual global consumption growth through to 2030.

In the very short term, however, food safety perception is the key risk. The concentration of ochratoxin A alerts in Turkish dried figs in Q1 2026 is increasing the likelihood of order postponements, stricter supplier audits and possible renegotiation of contracts, particularly with European retail‑led buyers. This acts as a cap on prices despite the structurally tighter supply picture and could shift additional volumes back onto the domestic Turkish market, where demand is not strong enough to absorb all export‑quality product at previous price highs.

🌦 Weather Outlook – Malatya & Aegean Belt (Short Term)

Over the next three days (April 2–4, 2026), Malatya is forecast to see cloudy and cool conditions with occasional light showers today, followed by a return of sunshine and mild temperatures around 14–15°C on Friday and Saturday. These conditions are largely neutral for dried fig stocks, as the main drying and harvest period lies months ahead, and current product is already in storage.

For now, there are no acute weather threats impacting existing dried fig inventories or immediate new‑crop prospects. Market attention is therefore focused far more on trade flows and quality management than on short‑term meteorological risk in the growing regions.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (3 Days)

Given steady recent quotes, neutral short‑term weather and a soft external demand environment, dried fig prices in Malatya are expected to remain broadly unchanged over the next three days. Mild intraday fluctuations may occur on individual size negotiations, but the overall price band for both natural and Lerida grades should hold.

Product	Region / Basis	Current Level (approx. EUR/kg FOB)	3‑Day Bias
Dried figs, natural (No. 7–1)	Malatya, TR – FOB	~7.0 – 8.9 EUR/kg	Sideways (0 to ±0.5%)
Dried figs, Lerida (No. 7–1)	Malatya, TR – FOB	~7.0 – 10.2 EUR/kg	Sideways (0 to ±0.5%)

🧭 Trading Outlook & Strategy Pointers

• Exporters: Use the current sideways price environment to lock in long‑term contracts with reliable buyers, emphasizing enhanced quality controls and full documentation to mitigate the impact of recent EU ochratoxin alerts.
• Importers/Buyers: With prices stable and Turkey still holding sizeable exportable stocks, there is room to negotiate slightly improved terms on volume deals, but attention should remain on supplier compliance and lot‑by‑lot testing.
• Industrial users: Consider modest forward coverage while prices remain in the current band; upside risks over the medium term stem from any weather‑related setback in the coming crop or regulatory tightening that removes lower‑quality lots from the market.