Turkish dried figs steady while Lerida grades correct lower

Turkish dried fig prices are broadly steady for natural grades, while Lerida figs have corrected lower across most sizes, reflecting weaker short-term demand and ongoing quality concerns from the last crop.

The Malatya-based FOB market for Turkish dried figs is entering mid‑April in a consolidation phase. Natural figs (Nos. 1–7) are flat versus late March, suggesting a balanced spot market with sellers in no rush and buyers covering only nearby needs. In contrast, Lerida figs have seen clear price reductions of around 7–10% since early April on higher availability of mid‑range qualities and more selective import demand. Mild, mostly dry spring weather in western Türkiye supports fig trees ahead of the 2026/27 crop, while global dried-fruit demand remains structurally firm, especially for health-focused snacking and ingredient uses.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Movements

All prices below are indicative Malatya FOB levels converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR):

Product	Grade / Type	Latest price (EUR/kg, FOB TR)	1–month change
Dried figs	No: 1, natural	≈ 8.93	Stable vs 19 March
Dried figs	No: 4, natural	≈ 8.18	Stable vs 19 March
Dried figs	No: 7, natural	≈ 7.07	Stable vs 19 March
Dried figs	No: 1, Lerida	≈ 9.30	Down ~9% vs 8 April
Dried figs	No: 3–5, Lerida	≈ 8.14–8.14	Down ~7–9% vs 8 April
Dried figs	No: 6–7, Lerida	≈ 7.20–7.07	Down ~10–13% vs 8 April

Natural figs show a flat curve between late March and 14 April, indicating that current‑crop supply is well aligned with offtake. The sharper drop in Lerida prices across Nos. 1–6 signals a re‑pricing of more premium presentation figs, as buyers resist earlier highs and sellers prioritize clearing remaining stocks before the next marketing year.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Fundamentals

On fundamentals, Türkiye remains the dominant supplier, with 2025/26 dried fig production forecast to rise about 17% year‑on‑year to roughly 70,000 t, after a weather‑ and mycotoxin‑affected 2024/25 crop. This improved production outlook underpins the current sideways to slightly softer tone, especially for Lerida grades where export buyers have more choice and can push for discounts.

At the same time, global demand for dried fruits, including figs, continues to benefit from health and convenience trends in both retail snacks and ingredient channels. However, Europe’s share in Türkiye’s dried fig exports has been gradually shrinking, partly due to tighter food‑safety controls and stronger competition from other origins. This encourages Turkish exporters to diversify into Middle Eastern and Asian markets, where demand is growing but price sensitivity is higher, helping explain the recent downward adjustment on Lerida offers.

🌦 Weather Outlook (Region: TR)

In the core Aegean fig belt (around Aydın and İzmir), weather for the next three days (15–17 April) is forecast to be mostly mild and dry, with daytime highs around 23–27°C, some cloud cover and only light showers possible on Friday. These conditions are generally supportive for fig flowering and early fruit set and do not currently pose a threat of frost or excessive rainfall.

More broadly, 2026 has so far brought better moisture conditions across much of Türkiye’s agricultural regions, as also reflected in cereal outlooks. For figs, the key risk window will be later spring/early summer heatwaves or heavy rains during the drying period; at this stage, there is no immediate weather‑driven bullish catalyst for prices.

📊 Market Drivers & Risks

• Stock position: After a reduced 2024/25 crop, carry‑in into 2025/26 is relatively low but not critical; exporters still report adequate current‑crop availability for standard natural and Lerida grades.
• Quality & food safety: Previous season issues with aflatoxin and ochratoxin in Turkish figs keep buyers cautious and documentation‑focused, especially in the EU, adding friction to sales and limiting upside.
• Macro & freight: Global dried‑fruit demand is underpinned by consumer health trends, but higher logistics and financing costs continue to cap end‑user price tolerance, particularly for premium visual grades such as Lerida.

📆 3‑Day Price Outlook (FOB TR, in EUR)

• Natural figs (Nos. 1–5): Sideways. Mild weather and balanced stocks suggest prices holding broadly in the current ≈ 7.07–8.93 EUR/kg range over the next three days.
• Lerida figs (Nos. 1–5): Slight downside bias. After the recent correction, a further small softening of 0.05–0.10 EUR/kg is possible if nearby demand stays quiet.
• Lower grades (Nos. 6–7, all types): Stable to marginally weaker, with competitive offers likely as exporters tidy residual lots ahead of the new marketing year.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (importers, packers): Consider scaling in purchases of Lerida grades on the current dip, especially for Nos. 2–4, while keeping quality specs tight. For natural figs, avoid over‑covering beyond nearby needs, as the improved 2025/26 crop outlook caps upside risk.
• Exporters in Türkiye: Maintain offer discipline on natural figs but stay flexible on Lerida premiums to stimulate demand. Focus on strict quality control and documentation to protect access to high‑value EU outlets.
• Industry users (confectionery, bakery, cereal): The present stability in natural figs offers a window to fix medium‑term volumes and hedge against potential weather‑related volatility later in the season.