Turkish Raisin Harvest Starts Heavy, But Quality Risks Cap Downside

Prices in the raisin market are under pressure as a large Turkish crop comes to market, but quality risks from low brix readings and uncertainty over official Turkish Grain Board (TMO) prices are limiting further downside. The new Turkish raisin harvest has started with strong export momentum, but not yet with strong prices. Weekly shipments reached 2,800 tonnes, lifting season exports to about 135,000 tonnes, yet exporters still describe current levels as below expectations. A high yield estimate of around 337,000 tonnes is weighing on sentiment, but last week’s low brix measurements have introduced real doubts about how much of that volume will ultimately make raisin grade. Until TMO announces its season-opening purchase prices and the impact of lower brix on final output is clearer, both sellers and buyers are likely to stay cautious.

Prices

Turkish sultana offers are stable to soft at relatively low levels given the size of the crop. In Malatya on 12 August 2026, indicative prices stand around EUR 2.13/kg CIF for Type 9 RTU and EUR 2.20–2.31/kg FOB for conventional Type 8–10 Grade A, while organic Type 9 trades near EUR 3.10/kg FOB. These levels have moved sideways in recent days but remain below what many exporters consider a fair starting point for the new season.

In Europe, ex-warehouse competition remains visible. Chinese-origin standard No. 9 RTU was last indicated around EUR 1.89/kg FCA Hamburg after a recent cut, while Turkish No. 9 RTU in Dordrecht is closer to EUR 2.95/kg FCA. Indian golden raisins are quoted near EUR 2.50–2.65/kg ex New Delhi FCA/FOB, with brown and black grades mostly just under or around EUR 2.00/kg. This leaves Turkish sultanas competitively priced in quality-sensitive segments but exposed to cheaper Asian supply in more price-driven channels.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish harvest has begun on a strong footing. Export flows of 2,800 tonnes this week, taking the season total to 135,000 tonnes, underline solid demand from traditional markets. However, the headline supply story is the very high yield figure of about 337,000 tonnes, which, if fully realized at raisin quality, would represent an ample to heavy crop.

The key caveat is fruit quality. Recent grape brix measurements came in low, raising the risk that usable raisin output will fall below 300,000 tonnes. This uncertainty over final raisin-equivalent tonnage is preventing the market from fully pricing in a surplus scenario. Buyers have enough offers to cover nearby needs, yet are wary of assuming that all field fruit will convert into standard exportable grades.

Fundamentals & TMO Role

Two opposing forces currently define fundamentals. On the bearish side, field observations still point to a high physical grape crop, and exports are running well, reinforcing the perception of comfortable supply. On the bullish side, quality doubts and low brix data could significantly trim the originally anticipated 337,000-tonne harvest, especially for higher grades.

Market psychology is dominated by the pending price decision from TMO. Exporters report that preliminary price ideas for the new season are considered too low, suggesting producer pushback and limited willingness to sell aggressively ahead of clarity on state procurement levels. Once TMO announces its buying prices, they will effectively set a floor for domestic transactions and influence export offer ideas. Until then, spot business continues, but forward activity remains restrained.

Weather & Quality Outlook

With harvest already underway, weather risks now focus more on drying and post-harvest handling than on yield formation. Any further periods of humidity or unseasonal rain in Turkish growing regions would worsen the impact of already low brix by slowing drying, increasing mold risk and pushing more fruit into lower grades or feed channels.

If conditions remain predominantly dry and stable through the core drying window, the sector could mitigate some of the quality concerns and recover closer to the upper end of current production expectations. Conversely, additional weather-related downgrades would tighten availability of higher grades and could quickly firm prices in export markets, especially for calibrated and RTU product.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / packers: Use current weak price environment to cover near-term needs, but avoid over-buying until TMO prices and actual raisin-grade volumes are clearer. Focus on locking in mid-range qualities where downside from further price erosion is limited.
• Exporters / producers: Consider a staggered selling strategy. Commit a portion of volumes at today’s levels to maintain liquidity, while retaining flexibility for potential price improvement if low brix significantly trims final output.
• Industry users (bakery, cereal, chocolate): Evaluate switching some demand into Turkish sultanas where quality advantages justify a premium over cheaper Chinese and Indian origins, especially for branded and higher-value products.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)