Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Tight Global Supply Limits Downside

Turkish sultana raisin prices are holding steady at elevated levels, with no significant moves since mid-March and only marginal softening in some competing origins. Tight global supply is preventing any meaningful downside, while buyers remain price-sensitive and selective.

Turkish exporters are offering standard Malatya sultanas type 9 around EUR 2.35–2.40/kg FOB/CIF equivalent, with type 10 closer to EUR 2.65/kg and organic lots near EUR 3.10/kg. Chinese and Indian raisins continue to cap further upside but cannot fully replace Turkish volumes into Europe. Current weather in Malatya is mild and largely non-threatening for vineyards, so near-term price drivers remain stock levels and export demand rather than weather shocks. Overall, the market is balanced-to-tight, favouring a sideways to slightly firm bias into the end of March.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are indicative wholesale export levels, converted to EUR/kg.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Change
TR sultanas type 9, grade A	Malatya, FOB	2.35	Flat vs 19 March
TR sultanas type 9, RTU	Malatya, CIF	2.40	Flat vs mid-March
TR sultanas type 10, grade A	Malatya, FOB	2.65	Flat vs 19 March
TR sultanas type 9, organic	Malatya, FOB	3.10	Flat vs early March
CN sultanas type 9, RTU std	DE, FCA	≈2.21	−0.02 vs 16 March
IN golden raisins, grade AA	New Delhi, FOB	≈2.31	Marginally softer vs mid-March

Recent trade commentary for Q1 2026 suggests sultana and raisin prices globally are expected to remain broadly stable but at elevated levels, as reduced outputs in key origins such as Turkey keep stock levels tight despite steady demand from Europe and the UK.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Competitiveness

Turkey remains the single most important dried grape exporter globally, supplying roughly a third of world dried grape exports in recent years, with Europe as the dominant destination. Tight supplies from the 2025 and 2025/26 Turkish crops, after weather-related damage and smaller-than-average harvests, continue to underpin price levels into early 2026 despite slower export volumes.

European buyers, particularly in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, have maintained strong structural demand for Turkish sultanas, but are increasingly price-sensitive and willing to shift some volumes to China, South Africa and India when differentials widen. Competitive offers from Chinese raisins have captured market share on price, although some buyers remain cautious due to ethical and compliance concerns, limiting a full displacement of Turkish origin. Overall, this leaves Turkish exporters in a position of firm but not aggressive pricing power.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the global raisin complex is in a balanced-to-tight position. Earlier industry estimates point to lower Turkish production and tighter ending stocks through the 2025/26 season, while other key producers such as Iran and China have also faced weather and quality issues over the last marketing year, constraining comfortable surplus.

In the short term, weather is not a major bearish factor. Over 25–27 March 2026, Malatya is forecast to see mostly cloudy, cool conditions with a few light showers, daytime highs around 11–16°C and nighttime lows near 4–5°C. These conditions are normal for late March and do not currently imply acute frost or heat stress risk for vineyards. As a result, near-term fundamentals are being driven more by existing stock, export sales pace and currency/logistics costs than by immediate weather threats.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Given the combination of tight supply, firm European demand and only modest competition from lower-priced origins, market consensus for Q1–early Q2 2026 points to stable but elevated sultana and raisin prices rather than a strong directional move.

• Buyers (importers/packers): Consider covering near-term needs on any minor dips, especially for Turkish type 9 and type 10, as downside appears limited while global stocks remain constrained.
• Exporters in Turkey: Maintain disciplined offer levels; aggressive discounting risks leaving value on the table given tight fundamentals, but be prepared for selective concessions where Chinese or Indian alternatives are directly competing.
• Industry users (bakers, cereal, snack): Lock in a portion of Q2–Q3 requirements via forward contracts to hedge against potential firming should weather or logistics disrupt supply later in the season.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Turkey – Malatya (FOB/CIF raisins): Sideways bias over the next three days; no fundamental or weather trigger for immediate repricing.
• EU import hubs (NL/DE FCA stocks): Slightly soft tone on Chinese and some secondary origins, but Turkish-origin offers expected to remain steady.
• South Asia (India FOB): Mildly easier sentiment as domestic and export demand is patchy, offering only limited relief to global buyers.