Turkish Raisin Prices Hold Steady as New Crop Approaches

Turkish raisin prices are stable week-on-week, with Malatya sultana offers flat and a narrow premium for organic product. The market is in a short consolidation phase ahead of the main drying and export campaign, with no immediate weather shock or policy change visible in Türkiye. With Malatya and the wider dried-grape belt under seasonally hot, dry summer conditions, growers are approaching the critical drying period with broadly favourable weather and no reports of major crop damage in the last few days. Export demand from Europe is described as steady, while competition from Chinese and Indian origins keeps a lid on upside. For now, the market is balanced, and price risk is skewed moderately to the upside if late-August weather turns wetter than normal or if Turkish exporters start the new campaign with firm opening prices.

Prices

Using an indicative rate of 1.00 USD ≈ 0.91 EUR, current Turkish Malatya prices translate as follows:

Chinese standard sultanas ex-Hamburg and CN origin ex-NL remain slightly cheaper in euro terms, while Indian golden raisins ex-New Delhi are priced at a premium to Turkish conventional but below Turkish organic, suggesting a broadly competitive global landscape.

Supply, Demand & Weather (TR)

The key Turkish dried-grape regions around Manisa (Aegean) and Malatya are currently in their typical hot, dry summer regime. Recent climate bulletins from the Turkish State Meteorological Service show May–July temperatures above the long-term average in many inland provinces, including Malatya, consistent with strong heat but not exceptional extremes in 2026 so far.

For raisin production, dry conditions during the August drying period are generally beneficial as long as heat waves do not cause severe berry burn. Studies on Aegean drying areas highlight that rain during drying can sharply reduce raisin quality, while August seasons with minimal rainfall support good product. At present there are no fresh reports of disruptive rain in the last few days across the main Turkish grape belts.

On the demand side, European buyers are well-supplied but watching Turkish price indications as the new campaign approaches. With Turkey remaining a major dried-grape exporter, any adjustment in official or exporters’ opening prices, or in the lira exchange rate, could quickly translate into euro-denominated moves later in August and early September.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stock & pipeline: Old-crop Turkish raisin stocks in Europe appear comfortable, with TR product also present in Dutch and German warehouses alongside Chinese and Chilean origins. This diversified supply is limiting aggressive upside for nearby shipment.
• Relative value: Turkish conventional sultanas are priced moderately above Chinese and some Indian grades but still competitive versus Chilean flame jumbo and Indian golden AA. The organic Turkish premium remains substantial but stable.
• Macro & FX: Broader Turkish export sectors have been adjusting to higher domestic costs and exchange-rate volatility, which can periodically trigger repricing in export-oriented crops such as dried grapes.
• Weather risk: While 2026 has been warmer than average in many Turkish agricultural provinces, recent official climate summaries do not yet flag a specific dried-grape disaster. Nevertheless, global work on climate-linked crop risks underlines an elevated probability of extreme events, keeping a weather risk premium in the background.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View (TR)

• Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): With no new weather or policy shock visible and current Malatya prices unchanged week-on-week, Turkish raisin prices are likely to trade sideways in EUR terms, with only minor day-to-day FX-driven noise.
• Buyers: Light coverage for nearby positions looks reasonable at current levels, especially for specific grades (type 10, organic) where supply can tighten quickly if early quality assessments are strong.
• Sellers: Turkish packers may prioritise volume and market share ahead of formal new-crop opening prices, suggesting limited room for immediate hikes; however, maintaining offer discipline on premium grades is advisable given the still-favourable quality outlook.

3‑day regional price indication (Malatya, TR, in EUR):

• FOB Malatya conventional sultanas (types 8–10): expected broadly flat around 2.00–2.10 EUR/kg.
• FOB Malatya organic sultanas: expected stable around 2.80–2.85 EUR/kg.
• CIF offers into nearby Mediterranean buyers: likely to mirror FOB trends, with freight changes minimal over the next three days.