Turkish Raisin Prices Steady as Wet Start to October Slows Drying Pace

Turkish raisin prices are holding broadly steady at the end of September, with Malatya sultana offers unchanged across key grades despite more unsettled, wetter weather moving over the region in early October. Export interest remains selective but present, and there is no fresh policy signal strong enough yet to push the market out of its current range. The market enters October with a comfortable tone: the new 2026/27 crop has largely moved into dryers and warehouses, and buyers are testing volumes without chasing prices. In Malatya, a series of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for 1–3 October, potentially slowing any remaining field drying and on‑farm handling, but temperatures remain seasonally mild and do not yet pose a quality threat. Currency volatility and logistics costs are being watched, but near‑term price risk for standard sultanas looks modest, with organic and higher count grades retaining a firmer premium.

Prices

Spot Turkish sultana prices in Malatya are unchanged versus the last quotation on 30 September. Standard type 9 and adjacent grades are trading in a tight range, with organic material maintaining a wide premium and RTU CIF offers sitting slightly above bulk FOB levels.

Compared with early September, Turkish sultana offers are fractionally lower to flat in euro terms, reflecting a modest easing from harvest‑time peaks and a broadly sideways pattern noted across the 2026/27 crop start.

Supply, Demand & Weather

The new season Turkish seedless grape harvest in key Aegean zones was officially opened in mid‑August, and by late September most grapes destined for sultanas have been dried and moved off the vineyards. Malatya, an important raisin packing and trading hub, is now mainly focused on processing and shipment rather than primary drying.

For 1–4 October, Malatya faces a spell of unsettled weather: national and local forecasts point to showers and thunderstorms with daytime highs around 19–21°C and lows near 10–14°C, before conditions turn drier and slightly warmer around 4 October. This may temporarily slow any remaining sun‑drying in late plots and complicate on‑farm handling but should not materially affect the overall crop outlook.

From a macro angle, dried fruits remain a strategic export item for Türkiye, and recent academic work highlights how external demand and even temperature trends support sector exports over time. With the main 2026/27 crop volume secured and no major weather shocks reported in the last days, physical availability for export appears comfortable in the near term.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop progression: Harvest and primary drying for Turkish sultanas are effectively complete; the current focus is grading, packing and export contract execution, reducing headline supply risk for Q4 shipments.
• Weather risk: Short bursts of moderate to heavy rain over 1–3 October may cause local quality variation in any late‑harvested or poorly covered lots around Malatya but are too short‑lived to shift national crop estimates.
• Demand tone: Export demand is present but measured as buyers test the new crop quality and watch currency and freight developments; this is consistent with the observed sideways price pattern in recent weeks.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Short‑term bias: With FOB and CIF Malatya prices unchanged and no new policy or weather shock, the near‑term price bias for standard Turkish sultanas is sideways.
• For buyers: Consider covering nearby Q4 needs at current levels, especially for type 10 and organic grades where availability is thinner and premiums are entrenched.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline on higher grades and organic, but be prepared for limited discounting on bulk type 8–9 to stimulate additional volume if export enquiry softens.

3‑Day Regional Outlook (Malatya, TR)

• 1–3 October 2026: Showers and periods of moderate rain with thunderstorms, daytime highs around the high‑teens to low‑20s °C; short‑term risk of slower drying and more cautious on‑farm buying, but export offer levels expected to remain broadly stable.
• 4 October 2026: Turning drier and partly cloudy with highs near low‑20s °C, easing operational constraints and supporting normal warehouse and loading activity in Malatya.