Turkish Raisins: Quiet Spot Market, Growing Frost and Policy Risks

Raisin trading stayed muted over the holiday week, but beneath the calm surface the market is coiling for potential upside if state stocks remain locked and frost risks materialise.

Overall activity was subdued as holidays slowed spot business, yet the underlying tone is firm. Commercial players are estimated to hold around 13,000 tonnes of raisins, while farmer-held stocks remain a big unknown. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is sitting on 16,000 tonnes that are not yet offered, effectively tightening available supply. Raw material for type 8 is around 95 TL/kg and could move beyond 100 TL/kg if TMO refrains from selling in April, especially as farmers show little urgency to market product before June and recent cold weather has heightened crop concerns.

📈 Prices & Spot Market

Raw material prices for Turkish sultanas type 8 are quoted around 95 TL/kg. With EUR/TRY near 35, this implies roughly EUR 2.70/kg at farm level, signalling a relatively tight grower position. On the export side, current Turkish offers from Malatya are stable week-on-week: sultanas type 8 grade A around EUR 2.20/kg FOB, type 9 grade A around EUR 2.35/kg FOB, and type 10 grade A about EUR 2.65/kg FOB. Organic sultanas type 9 remain at a premium near EUR 3.10/kg FOB.

In destination markets, Turkish RTU sultanas no. 9 are indicated around EUR 2.87/kg FCA Netherlands, while Chinese standard sultanas no. 9 RTU in Hamburg trade slightly lower, around EUR 2.21/kg FCA. Indian brown raisins (AA) stand close to EUR 1.86/kg FOB, with golden AA around EUR 2.31/kg FOB, providing competitive alternatives but not fully capping Turkish prices given the local tightness and policy uncertainty.

🌍 Supply, Stocks & Farmer Behaviour

The market’s key feature is a high but unevenly distributed stock situation. Businesses are estimated to hold roughly 13,000 tonnes of raisins, while the volume in farmers’ hands is unclear but believed to be significant. This opacity creates uncertainty on near-term availability and price elasticity. At the same time, TMO controls an additional 16,000 tonnes, which are currently not offered to the market, acting as a potential overhang but also as an immediate supply constraint.

Farmers appear in no rush to sell and are widely expected to delay larger sales until June, betting on higher prices. This withholding strategy, combined with the unopened TMO stocks, is tightening nearby supply despite the apparently comfortable overall balance. Exporters are therefore watching TMO’s sales policy closely; the 16,000 tonnes in public hands are seen as the decisive factor that could either cool or accelerate the next price leg.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Risk

Fundamental support is coming from both cost and weather sides. The current raw material level of around 95 TL/kg already translates into relatively firm EUR values for processed goods. If TMO keeps stocks off the market through April, raw material is expected to climb above 100 TL/kg, implying a further increase in export parity prices in EUR terms. With farmers holding back, exporters face rising replacement costs and are likely to resist significant discounts.

Last week’s sharp temperature drop has added a layer of weather risk for vineyards, raising concerns over potential frost damage in April for both farmers and exporters. The short-term forecast for Manisa and surrounding Aegean raisin areas shows mostly mild, changeable conditions with clouds and some rain and minimums generally above freezing over the next three days, which is temporarily reassuring. However, the recent cold spell has reminded the market how quickly sentiment can swing if another frost event threatens the developing crop.

📆 Market Outlook & Scenario

The coming four to six weeks hinge on TMO’s strategy. If TMO launches sales in April at competitive levels, raw material prices could stabilise below 100 TL/kg, tempering further FOB price gains and prompting more active exporter contracting. Conversely, if no meaningful volumes are released, nearby supply will remain tight, and raw material could break above 100 TL/kg, pushing export offers higher, especially for popular grades 8–10.

Farmer selling behaviour is a second key variable. A coordinated wait-and-see approach into June reduces available spot volume for exporters and may force buyers with short coverage to accept higher prices or look to alternative origins such as India and China. Yet, quality preferences and logistics often limit substitution, meaning Turkish product is likely to maintain a premium, particularly for higher grades and organic.

💡 Trading Recommendations

• Importers/Industrial users (EU/UK): Consider covering a portion of Q2–early Q3 needs at current EUR levels for Turkish type 8–10, given the asymmetric risk of raw material above 100 TL/kg if TMO delays selling.
• Exporters (Turkey): Avoid over-committing long at today’s FOB prices without secure raw material coverage; replacement risk is significant if farm-gate prices jump on lack of TMO sales and continued farmer holding.
• Traders: Watch TMO announcements and weather in Western Turkey closely. A frost scare combined with continued state stock retention could offer short-term upside for well-stored inventory.
• Buyers open to origin mix: For more price-sensitive segments, evaluate partial diversification into Indian and Chinese raisins, especially standard grades, to mitigate Turkish upside risk while keeping core Turkish volumes for quality-critical applications.

📍 3-Day Indicative Price View (Direction in EUR)

Origin & Grade	Location / Terms	Current Level (EUR/kg)	3-Day Bias
TR sultanas type 8, grade A	Malatya, FOB	~2.20	Sideways to slightly firmer
TR sultanas type 9, grade A	Malatya, FOB	~2.35	Sideways
TR sultanas type 10, grade A	Malatya, FOB	~2.65	Sideways to slightly firmer
TR sultanas no. 9, RTU	NL, FCA	~2.87	Stable
CN sultanas no. 9, RTU std	DE, FCA	~2.21	Stable