Turkish Sultana Raisins Hold Firm as Indian Grades Ease Slightly

Turkish sultana raisin prices are holding steady in early May, with FOB Malatya offers broadly unchanged and European FCA positions easing from earlier highs. Softer Indian raisin values and cautious global demand are trimming buying urgency, but structurally tight seedless supply continues to underpin the market. Global raisin trading at the start of May is characterized by selective restocking rather than aggressive forward coverage. Turkey remains the benchmark origin, supported by stable Q1 2026 export performance and normal, slightly cool and showery early‑May weather in key producing regions. Meanwhile, Indian prices have edged lower from recent peaks, tempering upside in Turkish export offers. With the euro stronger against the lira compared with early 2026, Turkish euro‑denominated prices look competitive for European buyers, though exporters are intent on defending current levels.

Prices & Spreads

Based on recent offers as of 5 May 2026 and an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 51.8–52.9 TRY, Turkish sultana prices in EUR remain stable week‑on‑week, while some EU stock positions have adjusted down from April peaks.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey’s dried grape exports reached about USD 107 million in Q1 2026, essentially flat year‑on‑year, confirming resilient overseas demand despite tighter seedless availability. The UK, Netherlands, Germany and France remain the core buyers, keeping steady import programs and limiting downside in Turkish offer levels.

Industry reports indicate that previous frost and adverse weather reduced Turkey’s 2025 seedless raisin output to roughly 165,000 tonnes, leaving global seedless supply structurally tighter into 2025/26. This background tightness offsets today’s cautious buying mood, where many EU and MENA buyers are top‑up purchasing Q2–Q3 cover rather than extending far forward.

India, after sharp price increases earlier in 2026, is now seeing mild day‑to‑day declines as heat builds in Maharashtra and domestic demand eases, slightly improving availability for export. China and Chile continue to offer stable prices with generally benign weather in Xinjiang and key Chilean valleys, giving buyers viable alternatives but not enough volume to displace Turkey as benchmark origin.

Fundamentals & Weather

Early‑May weather in Malatya is seasonally cool with scattered showers, with daytime temperatures generally in the low to mid‑teens Celsius and limited frost risk in the short term. This pattern is supportive for vine development and soil moisture without generating immediate quality concerns for the developing 2026/27 crop.

More broadly, observers note a wetter‑than‑usual pattern over Turkey in recent months, with frequent spring showers but without extreme cold in major Aegean and Eastern Anatolian fruit belts. For dried grapes, this suggests a neutral to slightly positive near‑term production outlook, though any prolonged wetness near harvest later in the year would become a key risk factor.

On the macro side, the euro has appreciated versus the lira over recent months, with reference rates around 51.8–52.9 TRY per EUR in early May 2026. This FX backdrop makes Turkish euro‑denominated offers more attractive for EU buyers, even as exporters signal that they intend to hold current USD‑ and TRY‑based price ideas to protect farmgate returns.

Short-Term Outlook

Market commentary points to largely stable Turkish prices in the near term, with the global raisin market described as “broadly stable to slightly softer” as India eases and Turkey holds firm. Given steady export sales, normal weather and still‑tight seedless fundamentals, sizeable price downside from current Malatya FOB levels looks limited over the next few weeks.

However, the recent sharp reduction in some FCA EU stock quotes for Turkish origin suggests near‑term pressure on traders holding expensive inventory, especially if demand from bakery, snack and cereal sectors remains cautious. End‑users with flexible origin specifications may continue to blend in Indian, Chinese or Chilean raisins to manage input costs, but most are likely to preserve a Turkish component for quality and consistency reasons.

Trading Recommendations

• Industrial buyers (EU): Use current stability in Turkish FOB offers and lower FCA stock prices to secure Q3 coverage, especially for key grades (sultanas 8–10). Prioritise Turkish origin for core recipes, but keep some optionality on India/China for price flexibility.
• Exporters in Turkey: Maintain offer discipline near present EUR/kg levels given tighter seedless fundamentals, but consider tactical discounts on nearby positions to keep pipelines flowing, particularly for lower‑moving calibres and organic volumes.
• Traders: Watch Indian spot developments closely; further softening there could cap upside in Turkish prices but also widen arbitrage opportunities between Indian FOB and Turkish FCA stock in Europe.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR/kg)

Directional view for 6–8 May 2026, based on current fundamentals, FX and weather in TR:

• Turkey – Malatya FOB sultanas 8–10: ≈ 2.18–2.45 EUR/kg, steady.
• Turkey – Organic sultanas 9 FOB: ≈ 3.10 EUR/kg, steady to slightly soft on thin demand.
• EU (DE/NL) FCA Turkish sultanas 9: ≈ 2.80–2.90 EUR/kg, slightly soft as traders adjust high‑cost stocks.