Ukraine Sunflower Seeds: Crushers Freeze Old-Crop Buying as New Harvest Nears

Ukrainian sunflower seed prices are undergoing a sharp downward reset as crushers stop buying at old levels and switch to much lower bids for the new crop. Farmers face an 8,000–10,000 UAH/t shock versus early August while processors run mainly on previously accumulated stocks and prepare for a cheaper, larger inflow of seeds with the coming harvest. The domestic market has effectively split into a frozen old-crop segment and an aggressively repriced new-crop forward segment. Processors are quoting roughly 20,000–23,000 UAH/t for new-crop sunflower seed, signalling that supply expectations and export bottlenecks are outweighing near-term raw material tightness. With only a few plants still crushing remaining stocks, spot demand is weak, and logistics risks around Black Sea ports further cap upside for Ukrainian origin in the short term. Farmers are forced to reassess selling strategies and cash-flow planning ahead of harvest.

Prices

Most Ukrainian processors have stopped purchasing sunflower seeds at previous high prices and now publish only new-crop indications around 20,000–23,000 UAH/t ex-works, implying a decline of about 8,000–10,000 UAH/t since the beginning of August. At a working assumption of 1 EUR ≈ 44 UAH, this places indicative new-crop plant-level values roughly in the 455–525 EUR/t range.

Physical market offers confirm this downward trend. FCA prices for black sunflower seeds (98% purity, Ukraine origin) in Odesa and Kyiv have eased from around 0.62 EUR/kg in late July to about 0.54 EUR/kg by 13 August 2026, while FOB Odesa values have slipped from roughly 0.63 to 0.59 EUR/kg over the same period. Sunflower meal FOB Odesa has also softened slightly, indicating pressure along the oilseed complex rather than only in raw seed.

Supply & Demand

The pricing reset is driven primarily by expectations of a sizeable new Ukrainian sunflower harvest, combined with storage and export constraints. Processors have largely stepped back from spot purchases at old prices and are instead waiting to cover needs from cheaper new-crop supplies. Only a small number of plants continue to crush, mostly drawing down stocks accumulated earlier in the season.

On the demand side, Black Sea export logistics remain disrupted by ongoing Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports and a reinforced naval blockade, which are trapping part of Ukraine’s broader grain and oilseed harvest onshore and threatening to halve seaborne exports. This reduces crushers’ confidence in sustaining high sunflower seed and oil prices in export markets and encourages cautious procurement strategies focused on margin protection rather than volume growth.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the Ukrainian sunflower balance for 2026/27 points to a bigger crop than last season, although sowing was delayed and yield risks remain in some regions. Earlier in the year, domestic sunflower prices hovered near psychologically important highs around 30,000 UAH/t, which incentivised area but also set up the current steep correction once expectations shifted towards ample supply and export bottlenecks.

Weather in key sunflower regions (Central and Southern Ukraine, including Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts) over the next week is forecast to be seasonally warm with scattered showers, conditions that are broadly neutral to slightly positive for late vegetative and early ripening stages. No widespread heat stress or excessive rainfall is indicated for the next few days, suggesting the weather is not providing any immediate bullish support to prices.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Farmers: With plants no longer buying at old levels and new-crop bids sharply lower, consider selling only minimum volumes needed for cash-flow and storage management while monitoring actual harvest progress and export policy developments. Avoid panic selling into the first harvest pressure days if on-farm storage is available.
• Crushers: The halt in old-crop purchases and focus on 20,000–23,000 UAH/t new-crop pricing is justified by current fundamentals. Maintain disciplined procurement and preserve margin flexibility, but be prepared to step in more actively if yield or logistics disruptions unexpectedly tighten seed supply.
• Exporters and traders: FOB spreads for Ukrainian sunflower seeds and products are under pressure from logistics risks and competition from other origins. Prioritise flexible destinations and alternative routes (river, rail to EU) and hedge freight and basis risk, as port-related news can trigger sudden volatility in crush margins and seed replacement values.

3-Day Price Direction Outlook (UA)

• Sunflower seeds, black 98%, FCA domestic (Odesa, Kyiv): Slight downside to sideways over the next 3 days, as crushers remain largely absent from old-crop spot buying and focus on lower new-crop bids.
• Sunflower seeds, black 98%, FOB Odesa: Sideways with a mild downward bias, reflecting limited export capacity and cautious offshore demand for Ukrainian origin.
• Sunflower by-products (meal, kernels) UA FOB/FCA: Mostly stable with a soft tone, tracking seed price weakness and constrained crush rates.