Ukrainian feed barley dips on weaker FCA bids, stable FOB support

Ukrainian feed barley prices are edging lower on the domestic FCA market, while FOB levels from Odesa remain relatively steady, helped by ongoing export flows despite renewed security risks in the Black Sea. Soft external demand and full EU wheat quotas cap upside, but competitive Black Sea barley keeps Ukraine well placed versus Russian and EU origins. Ukrainian barley is currently priced very competitively in global terms, with FCA bids easing in Kyiv and Odesa while FOB Odesa values hold broadly flat. Export logistics from Black Sea ports continue under the shadow of recent Russian attacks, which could trim total grain exports, yet shipments from Odesa still move at substantial volumes. Regionally warm, mostly dry weather in southern Ukraine is broadly favourable for barley development and early harvest, reinforcing expectations of solid availability in the near term.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR where needed.

Ukrainian CPT/FOB barley is broadly in line with Russian levels near 0.18–0.19 EUR/kg, keeping Black Sea origins highly competitive against EU exporters. Recent weighted-average CPT bids for Ukrainian barley around 10,400 UAH/t (≈0.24 EUR/kg) reported earlier in June have eased as new-crop expectations build and domestic demand remains soft.

Supply & Demand

Ukraine has shipped almost 36 million tonnes of grains and pulses so far in the 2025/26 season, about 10% below last year, with barley accounting for a modest share compared with wheat and maize. While barley exports in the first half of the season lagged the previous year, Ukraine remains an important supplier into MENA and Asia, competing mainly with Russia, EU and Australian origins.

EU import demand for Ukrainian cereals is constrained by tariff-rate quotas and the rapid exhaustion of wheat quotas for 2026, which indirectly limits barley flows into the bloc and pushes Ukrainian sellers to focus more on MENA and Asian destinations. Recent Jordanian buying of 60,000 tonnes of feed barley underscores steady but unspectacular global demand; Black Sea suppliers, including Ukraine, are expected to remain key participants in such tenders given their cost advantage.

Logistics & Risk Factors

Black Sea logistics remain the main risk driver. Recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports threaten to reduce total grain exports by up to 30%, though Odesa-region ports are still handling around 6 million tonnes of cargo per month, indicating that flows have not stopped. Any sustained damage to export infrastructure or renewed shipping restrictions could quickly tighten FOB availability and support higher barley prices.

So far, market participants appear to price in disruption risk but not a full shutdown, which helps explain the modest premium in FOB Odesa barley versus softening domestic FCA values. Competitive Russian barley around 0.19 EUR/kg and relatively ample nearby supplies also cap upside, forcing Ukrainian sellers to accept narrower margins to stay in export programs.

Weather Outlook – Ukraine (UA)

Weather in Odesa oblast over the coming days is forecast to be warm with partly cloudy skies and maximum temperatures around 27–28°C and minimums near 19–21°C. Such conditions are generally favourable for late vegetative growth and early harvest preparation, with no immediate signs of yield-threatening extremes.

Soil moisture in southern Ukraine has tightened slightly after recent dry spells, but current short-term forecasts do not indicate severe heat stress or prolonged drought in the next three days. In this context, weather is mildly bearish to neutral for prices, reinforcing expectations of good supply into the local and export markets in late June and early July.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Domestic softness: FCA bids in Kyiv and Odesa have slipped by around 0.02 EUR/kg over the past 10–14 days, reflecting comfortable nearby stocks and cautious domestic feed demand.
• Export floor: FOB Odesa barley for cattle feed has edged slightly higher to about 0.193 EUR/kg, with seaborne demand providing a floor despite geopolitical risks.
• Global competitiveness: Ukrainian and Russian barley sit in a tight price band around 0.18–0.19 EUR/kg, making Black Sea offers among the cheapest globally and ensuring participation in MENA tenders when logistics allow.
• Policy and trade flows: The rapid use of EU wheat import quotas and the broader tariff-rate quota framework for Ukrainian grains steer more Ukrainian barley towards non‑EU destinations, slightly increasing dependence on MENA and Asian demand hubs.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• For sellers (farmers/elevators): Consider accelerating sales of old-crop feed barley on FOB/CPT terms while export programs remain active and weather is benign. Downside risk persists on FCA domestic bases if new-crop prospects stay favourable and external demand does not strengthen.
• For exporters: Lock in nearby Black Sea barley sales where logistics and insurance are available, using current parity with Russian origin to maintain market share in MENA tenders. Retain some flexibility for potential risk premiums should port disruptions escalate.
• For buyers (feed mills/traders): Short-term, favour spot or short forward coverage from Ukrainian origin while FCA prices are under pressure. Be prepared to extend coverage quickly if signs of sustained export capacity loss or adverse weather emerge.

3‑Day Price Indication (UA)

• Odesa – CPT feed barley: Sideways to slightly softer, expected range 0.168–0.173 EUR/kg over the next 3 days, assuming unchanged port operations.
• Odesa – FOB feed barley: Largely stable around 0.190–0.195 EUR/kg; modest upside possible only if fresh export tenders materialise or security incidents intensify.
• Kyiv – FCA feed barley: Mildly bearish bias, with bids likely to trade in a 0.185–0.192 EUR/kg band as domestic demand remains subdued and new‑crop expectations build.