US Walnuts Ride Export Wave as Chinese Kernels Edge Higher

US walnut shipments are surging on robust export demand, especially from Turkey and the wider Middle East–Africa region, tightening available supplies despite uneven buying in Europe and India. At the same time, Chinese walnut kernel offers in EUR are edging higher, signaling a firmer international price floor. Global walnut trade flows are being reshaped by a marked shift away from traditional European demand toward high‑growth markets in Turkey, the Middle East–Africa and parts of Asia. US in-shell and kernel shipments have more than doubled in the current season on the back of aggressive export buying and firm Chinese walnut prices, which make Californian product comparatively attractive. With FOB offers for Chinese kernels in Dalian and organic US/Indian kernels all showing small but consistent week‑on‑week gains in EUR terms, the market tone is clearly firmer as buyers move to secure coverage ahead of the next Northern Hemisphere crop.

Prices

Chinese walnut kernel FOB Dalian offers have ticked up modestly since mid-July. Light pieces 8–12 mm have moved from roughly EUR 2.85/kg to about EUR 2.90/kg, while light amber pieces are around EUR 2.35/kg. Light broken kernels are now near EUR 3.00/kg, and light quarters around EUR 3.35/kg, each about EUR 0.05/kg above late July levels.

Organic light halves show a similar firming pattern: US-origin material ex London trades near EUR 4.55/kg, while Indian organic halves out of New Delhi are around EUR 5.35/kg, both up about EUR 0.05/kg since late July. These small but broad-based increases suggest that the market is moving out of its previous floor, supported by better export movement from the US and relatively firm internal prices in China.

Supply & Demand

US in-shell walnut shipments are the key driver in the current season. Cumulative in-shell movement is approaching 300 million pounds, more than double last year. Exports are up 114%, while domestic shipments have risen 47%, indicating that the market is being cleared primarily through international channels.

Turkey has emerged as a major growth engine, with in-shell imports from the US rising almost fivefold. Exports to the Middle East and Africa have jumped roughly 395%, from about 37 million to 183 million pounds, with strong gains in the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco. This is partially offset by weaker demand in established markets: European in-shell imports are down around 5%, including a 13% decline in Spain, and India has taken about 10% less in-shell volume.

On the kernel side, May shipments reached about 39.3 million pounds, up 23% year-on-year. Kernel exports grew 41%, far outpacing the modest 2% increase in domestic usage. Spain remains the leading European destination for kernels, with volumes up 24% to around 168.9 million pounds, and Germany has increased imports by 32%. Combined with firm internal prices in China and higher export quotations there, this strong offtake is helping to tighten the overall balance sheet for US walnuts.

Fundamentals

The surge in US shipments comes against a backdrop of structurally ample global supply but better-managed pipelines. Previous years of oversupply weighed heavily on prices, particularly in China and California. Now, aggressive US export campaigns into Turkey and the Middle East–Africa, together with improved access following tariff reductions in some destinations, are rebalancing stocks away from traditional European buyers.

Firm Chinese walnut prices limit the availability of cheap alternative origins and indirectly support Californian export values. With kernel exports outpacing domestic growth, packers are increasingly dependent on maintaining this export momentum. Any slowdown in key growth markets such as Turkey or the Middle East could quickly translate into renewed stock pressure, but for now the combination of strong shipments and modest price increases points to a healthier fundamentals picture than in previous seasons.

Weather & Crop Outlook

In California’s Central Valley, where most US walnuts are produced, early August 2026 is marked by a persistent heatwave, with repeated advisories for extreme daytime temperatures. While mature walnut trees can withstand typical summer heat, prolonged high temperatures elevate irrigation demand and can increase stress if water deliveries are constrained.

At this stage of the season, the crop is largely set, so current heat is more a quality and yield-risk factor at the margin than a volume game-changer. Short bouts of extreme heat during kernel filling can, however, impact kernel color and shrink, which may support premiums for high-quality lots later in the marketing year. No major, weather-related supply shock is yet evident, but risk is skewed slightly to the upside for prices if heat persists into late August.

Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Buyers (roasters, packers, retail chains): Consider extending coverage for standard Chinese pieces and US light halves on any minor dips, as current EUR prices suggest that the recent floor is giving way to a gently firmer trend.
• Importers in Turkey, MENA and Asia: Given the sharp rise in US shipments to your regions, forward book selectively to secure quality and logistics, but avoid overcommitting in case European demand remains soft and releases some pressure later in the season.
• Shellers and exporters in the US: Use the current strong export window to move remaining in-shell inventories, particularly to Turkey and the broader Middle East–Africa, while being cautious about overpricing kernels if Chinese offers remain competitive.

3-day directional outlook (EUR-based)

• FOB Dalian kernels (China): Slightly firmer bias in EUR, supported by steady demand and limited downside in CNY-denominated farm prices.
• FOB US kernels in Europe (ex London): Steady to slightly firmer, reflecting strong shipment data and tightness in high-quality light halves.
• In-shell, export-oriented (US origin): Stable to firm, with continued strong bookings from Turkey and the Middle East–Africa underpinning offers.