Vietnam Coffee FOB Prices Hold Firm as Futures Ease from Highs

Vietnamese FOB coffee prices are steady at elevated levels, even as ICE arabica and robusta futures have eased on expectations of ample global supply. Local exporters report flat week‑on‑week quotes in Hanoi, while export statistics show higher volumes but sharply lower unit values versus last year, reflecting the global downtrend from 2024–25 peaks. Vietnam’s coffee exports in H1 2026 reached about 1.1 million tonnes, up nearly 10% year-on-year, but export revenue fell more than 14% as average prices slid around 22% compared with 2025. On futures markets, July 2026 robusta on London is quoted near 3,535 USD/t, down 31 USD from May, while July 2026 arabica in New York trades around 265 USc/lb, down nearly 20 USc over the same period. Weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands remains seasonally wet but not yet threatening for the 2026/27 crop, keeping short-term fundamental pressure modest.

Prices

Export quotations from Hanoi on 11 July 2026 show Vietnamese robusta FOB prices broadly unchanged from the previous week, with differentials stable despite softer global benchmarks. Local offers remain supported by farmers’ cautious selling after the earlier price slide and by logistical and financing costs that limit downside room.

(Indicative EUR conversions assume ~1.09 USD/EUR and typical export parity vs ICE July 2026 prices.) ICE robusta and arabica curves remain backwardated but have lost momentum since May as traders price in larger Brazil and Vietnam crops and improved certified stocks.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s H1 2026 coffee exports of about 1.1 million tonnes (up 9.7% year-on-year) confirm strong robusta availability despite earlier weather issues. Yet export revenue dropped to roughly 4.78 billion USD, down more than 14%, as average export prices fell around 22% to roughly 4,435 USD/t, ending the period of exceptionally high margins seen in 2024–25.

On the demand side, roasters continue to favor robusta in blends to manage costs, but the recent global price easing and high inventories are capping additional demand-side support. Domestic Vietnamese prices in July 2026 remain notably below 2025 peaks but still well above pre-2024 averages, suggesting that much of the structural shift in robusta demand is intact even as speculative length on ICE has moderated.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is transitioning from a tight balance to a more comfortable global supply picture. Recent commentary highlights expectations of ample coffee supplies, especially from Brazil, which have weighed on futures over recent weeks. However, some speculative interest persists around potential El Niño-related volatility and longer-term supply risk, particularly for robusta in Asia.

Weather in Vietnam’s Central Highlands (Dak Lak, Gia Lai) for the coming days is forecast to remain typically wet-season: warm, humid conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms but no extreme events. Soil moisture is adequate after strong rains earlier in the season, supporting cherry development for the next harvest. In the short term, this neutral-to-supportive weather backdrop points to stable production expectations and removes a key bullish driver from the market.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Flat-to-soft bias for VN FOB: With H1 export volumes strong and global futures easing, FOB Hanoi robusta prices are likely to stay range-bound with a mild downside bias if London futures slip further.
• Watch Brazil and macro risk: Any negative surprises in Brazil’s harvest or a renewed weakening of the USD could trigger short-covering rallies in ICE contracts, offering hedging opportunities for Vietnamese sellers.
• Exporters: Consider layering forward sales on rallies in ICE robusta towards recent highs, while maintaining some open exposure in case of renewed weather or logistical disruptions.
• Roasters/importers: Near-term price stability and comfortable supply argue for gradually extending cover in Vietnamese robusta grades, especially wet-polished 16/18, on any additional dips.

3-Day Price Indication (VN-focused)

• FOB Hanoi robusta (all grades): Stable to slightly softer over the next three trading days, tracking any marginal weakness in ICE robusta but buffered by firm local differentials.
• FOB Hanoi arabica (grades 1–2): Largely stable, with limited downside as arabica remains supported by relatively tighter high-quality supply compared with robusta.
• Basis vs ICE: Differentials for Vietnamese robusta expected to hold firm as exporters protect margins amid lower outright futures levels.