Vietnam Robusta Coffee Flat but Firm as Exports Surge in H1 2026

Vietnam FOB coffee prices are holding steady at early-July highs, with robusta and arabica quotations unchanged over the last week despite softer global futures and strong export flows. Stable farm and export offers suggest a pause after the sharp rally earlier in 2026, while fundamentals still point to a tight but well-supplied market. Vietnamese coffee prices remain elevated in historical terms, supported by a strong export pace and solid demand from key buyers in Europe and Asia. Government data show coffee exports reaching about 1.1 million metric tons in the first half of 2026, up nearly 10% year-on-year, even as export revenue fell on lower average unit prices. In the Central Highlands, the wet season is progressing normally, with warm, humid and very wet July conditions that support cherry development but limit immediate harvest pressure.

Prices

On 3 July 2026, indicative FOB Hanoi offers in EUR for Vietnamese coffee were unchanged week-on-week across all grades. Benchmark robusta wet-polished (screen 18) traded around EUR 4.30/kg, while unwashed robusta (screen 18) was near EUR 3.95/kg. Top-grade arabica (grade 1) held at about EUR 7.70/kg and grade 2 around EUR 6.65/kg.

The flat week-on-week profile contrasts with modest softness in ICE robusta futures in late June, where nearby contracts drifted lower as markets priced in ample Brazil and Vietnam supply. The still-elevated domestic price level in Vietnam versus global benchmarks reflects quality premiums, freight and exporter margins and indicates that sellers remain in a relatively strong negotiating position.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s export performance in the first half of 2026 underscores solid demand for robusta. Government statistics show shipments of around 1.1 million metric tons, nearly 10% above the same period last year, though export earnings fell about 14% to USD 4.78 billion as unit prices eased from early-year peaks. This suggests volumes are strong but buyers are pushing for more competitive prices as global supply improves.

On the supply side, Vietnam remains on track for another large crop in 2025/26 and 2026/27, with official projections pointing to exports near or slightly below 29 million bags, helped by resilient yields in the Central Highlands. With Brazil harvesting a sizable arabica and conillon crop, global coffee availability in Q3 looks comfortable, limiting further upside for robusta unless weather shocks appear.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Vietnam)

In July, Vietnam’s Central Highlands – including Dak Lak and Gia Lai, key robusta regions – are deep into the rainy season. Typical conditions feature daytime highs around 29–30°C, nighttime lows near 21°C, very high humidity and roughly 240 mm of monthly rainfall spread over most days. Such a pattern is generally favourable for mid-cycle tree growth and cherry development, though frequent showers can complicate field logistics and input applications.

There are currently no widely reported weather anomalies or severe drought/heat stress in these coffee areas within the last few days, and forecasts point to a continuation of the humid, rainy regime. This supports the view of stable production prospects for the coming harvest, removing a major bullish driver from the near-term price outlook.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export strength vs. weaker revenues: Higher H1 export volumes alongside lower export value confirm that physical demand is robust but price bargaining has shifted in favour of buyers compared with the price spike earlier in 2026.
• Global futures context: ICE robusta futures for July 2026 have traded in a softening range through late June, as traders price in ample near-term supply from Brazil and Vietnam and improving certified stocks.
• Structural demand support: Ongoing diversification into roasted, ground and soluble coffee exports, particularly to regional markets, helps underpin demand for Vietnamese beans even as commodity prices cool.
• Regulatory backdrop: Implementation of EU deforestation rules remains a medium-term risk for Vietnam’s coffee exports but has not yet produced any acute disruption visible in July trade flows or prices.

3–Day Trading Outlook (VN-focused)

• FOB robusta, wet-polished (Hanoi): Prices are likely to remain in a narrow band around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg over the next three trading days, with limited fresh news and comfortable global supply capping rallies.
• FOB robusta, unwashed (Hanoi): Expected to track in the EUR 3.85–4.00/kg range, with some scope for minor discounts if futures soften further but farmers resist selling at lower levels.
• FOB arabica (Hanoi): Grade 1 and 2 offers should stay broadly stable near EUR 7.60–7.80/kg and EUR 6.60–6.70/kg respectively, shadowing ICE arabica but supported by tight local availability.

Trading Recommendations

• Exporters in Vietnam: Consider locking in a portion of Q3 robusta sales at current flat but still historically high EUR levels, using ICE futures or options to hedge downside in case of further global softening.
• International roasters/importers: Use the current sideways phase in Vietnamese FOB offers to scale into medium-term coverage, focusing on quality-differentiated robusta (scr 16–18) where differentials remain manageable.
• Speculators: With no immediate weather or supply shock and strong H1 export flows, risk–reward near term favours selling rallies rather than chasing further upside in robusta-linked instruments.