Vietnam Coffee FOB Prices Hold Firm as Global Futures Soften

Vietnamese FOB coffee prices in Hanoi are flat but resilient, even as ICE robusta futures ease on expectations of abundant global supply and strong Brazilian output. Stable local offers and weaker futures have slightly tightened differentials, keeping Vietnam competitive but limiting upside in the short term. Vietnam’s coffee market is currently characterised by steady export offers, robust shipment flows and largely normal weather in the main growing areas. Global futures have come under pressure from a record Brazil crop outlook and softer international demand, pulling down average export values despite rising Vietnamese volumes. For now, exporters face a classic squeeze: relatively firm farmgate and FOB prices at home versus declining benchmark prices abroad. Over the next few days, benign Central Highlands weather and ongoing harvest progress in Brazil argue for a sideways to mildly softer bias in Vietnamese differentials unless speculative buying returns.

Prices

All quoted prices are FOB Hanoi, converted approximately to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

On the futures side, September ICE robusta (RMU26) has traded lower in recent sessions, with daily commentary highlighting losses of around 2–2.5% amid expectations of ample supplies and pressure from a strong Brazil crop outlook. This softens the international benchmark, but Vietnamese FOB offers have not followed lower in the past week, slightly narrowing differentials.

Supply & Demand

Vietnamese coffee exports continued to post strong volumes in the first half of 2026, yet total export value fell as global prices declined, especially for robusta. Sector analysis notes that Brazil’s expanding production is intensifying competition in the robusta segment, reinforcing downward pressure on world prices.

Domestic supply in Vietnam remains comfortable after solid recent harvests, and exporters are actively shipping to the EU and Asia even at lower prices. However, the value squeeze is evident: higher volumes but lower revenues, which may limit producers’ willingness to discount further at the FOB level in the near term.

Fundamentals & Weather (VN)

In Vietnam’s Central Highlands – the core robusta belt – recent reports characterise weather as broadly normal for this point in the season, with no acute stress affecting 2026/27 crop prospects. Internationally, markets remain focused on a very large 2026/27 Brazilian crop, with some forecasts near record levels, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply.

Policy and regulatory factors are increasingly important: experts highlight that verified coffee-growing area data will be crucial for Vietnam to comply with the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) from 2027 and to preserve access to high-value EU markets. This is supportive for medium-term investment and could underpin quality differentials, but it does not materially change short-term price direction.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading View

• Price bias (3–5 days): With Hanoi FOB offers flat and ICE robusta futures under mild pressure, the near-term bias for Vietnamese FOB prices is sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms, mainly via futures-linked hedging rather than outright offer cuts.
• For exporters: Consider locking in current flat but still historically elevated differentials on nearby shipments, while keeping some upside exposure via options or staggered hedging in case of renewed weather or macro-driven rallies.
• For roasters/importers: Use the present consolidation in futures and steady Vietnamese offers to extend coverage modestly, particularly for key robusta grades (scr16–18), but avoid over-committing ahead of clearer signals on Brazil’s realised crop size.

3-day Regional Price Indication (VN-focused)

• Hanoi FOB robusta (all grades): Expected broadly stable in EUR, with any moves likely limited to ±1–2% in line with ICE robusta volatility.
• Hanoi FOB arabica (grades 1–2): Also seen range-bound, tracking Coffee C futures but cushioned by limited Vietnamese arabica supply.
• VN–Europe trade flows: No disruption expected in the next three days; logistics normal, with exporters focused on clearing existing contracts at current flat levels.