Vietnamese Rice Exports: Volume Strong, Prices Under Pressure

Vietnam’s rice exports are set to remain strong in 2026, with volumes likely to approach or slightly exceed 8 million tonnes, but exporters face softer prices and tougher competition from rival origins. Government monitoring of export flows, domestic supplies and global prices will be critical to balancing food security with export revenue. Rice remains a strategic pillar of Vietnam’s agricultural economy, supplying key Asian and African destinations while competing directly with India and Thailand. In the first eight to nine months of 2026, export volumes stayed above 6 million tonnes, but average export prices fell around 5–7% year on year as global supply stayed comfortable and buyers resisted higher offers. 

Prices

FOB quotations in our panel show broadly stable Vietnamese rice prices through late October and into early November 2026, with only marginal week-on-week moves. Standard long white Vietnamese rice (5% broken, FOB Hanoi) is indicated at EUR 0.34/kg, unchanged from the previous quotation, while Jasmine rice (FOB Hanoi) holds at EUR 0.36/kg. Specialty segments such as Japonica and white glutinous are steady at EUR 0.45/kg, and Calrose at EUR 0.48/kg.

Minor softness is visible in higher-value and niche categories: Vietnamese paper dried rice eased to EUR 1.66/kg from EUR 1.67/kg, and red rice slipped to EUR 0.62/kg from EUR 0.63/kg. In India, organic white basmati and non-basmati FOB New Delhi remain firm at EUR 1.55/kg and EUR 1.25/kg respectively, while parboiled and steam types such as 1121 creamy white sella (EUR 0.675/kg) and 1509 steam (EUR 0.70/kg) are stable. This underlines intense competition between Vietnamese medium/long-grain and Indian parboiled/steam supplies in price-sensitive markets.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam is expected to maintain its role as a core supplier to Asian and African importers in 2026, with exports potentially exceeding 8 million tonnes depending on final crop performance and import demand. The latest projections from national agencies point to paddy production around 43.5 million tonnes, sufficient to cover domestic food needs and leave roughly 7.7–8.0 million tonnes of exportable rice when converted from paddy, in line with official export targets. 

However, customs data and government reports indicate that in the first eight to nine months of 2026 exports reached about 6.0–6.4 million tonnes, down roughly 5% in volume and more than 10% in export value compared with the previous year. This reflects lower average export prices rather than a collapse in demand. Global rice supply for 2026/27 remains relatively ample, and key importing markets like the Philippines and several African countries are price sensitive, forcing Vietnamese exporters to compete closely with India, Thailand and Pakistan on both quality and terms. 

Fundamentals & Policy

Vietnamese authorities are closely tracking export volumes, domestic reserves and world prices to maintain food security while supporting farm incomes. Recent policy steps include more transparent allocation of export quotas and emphasis on reputable exporters, alongside long-term investment in one million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice in the Mekong Delta. These measures support a structural shift from competing mainly on volume and low prices towards higher value, fragrant and specialty rice segments. 

The export structure in 2026 is expected to tilt strongly towards high-quality and fragrant rice, potentially accounting for around three-quarters of total shipments, with glutinous and processing rice making up the balance. At the same time, domestic wholesale rice prices have been lower year on year, reflecting comfortable supplies and softer external demand, which align with our flat to slightly softer FOB quotations across key Vietnamese varieties. For exporters, this environment favours those able to meet stricter quality, sustainability and branding requirements in premium markets.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather in Vietnam’s main rice-growing regions has remained broadly favourable for the recent crops, with no major nationwide production shock reported. The Mekong Delta continues to provide the bulk of exportable rice, while other regions focus more on domestic consumption. Climate risks, particularly potential dry spells linked to regional weather anomalies, remain a watchpoint for the next planting cycles, but current official production forecasts still point to stable output around mid-40 million tonnes of paddy. 

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• Exporters in Vietnam: Prioritise forward coverage with key Asian buyers at current flat FOB levels (e.g. EUR 0.34/kg for long white 5% and EUR 0.36/kg for Jasmine, Hanoi, FOB), as downside in domestic prices appears limited while international competition caps upside.
• Importers in Asia and Africa: Use the present lull in prices and abundant availability of Vietnamese and Indian rice to secure medium-term supply, especially for higher-quality fragrant and Jasmine segments where future policy or weather shocks could tighten the market.
• Risk managers / traders: Monitor policy decisions in India and major importers; any renewed export restrictions or safeguard measures could quickly shift sentiment from mildly bearish to supportive for Vietnamese FOB values.

Over the next three trading days, Vietnamese FOB prices for standard long white and Jasmine are expected to remain broadly stable around current levels, with only narrow intra-day movements as the market digests existing export demand and awaits clearer signals on late-season buying from Asia and Africa. Indian FOB prices are likewise seen holding steady barring any sudden policy announcements.