Walnut Kernels Edge Higher as CN, IN and US Supply Tightens into New Crop

Walnut kernel prices in China, India and the US are edging higher, reflecting tighter pre-harvest supply and still-firm internal prices in key producing regions. With stable late‑summer weather in Dalian, no major near-term weather shock is visible, keeping the tone moderately bullish rather than explosive. Demand from India’s domestic market and steady export interest for Californian and Chinese kernels are supporting offers, while growers remain reluctant sellers ahead of clearer new-crop quality indications. Recent data from Jammu & Kashmir show high but volatile in-shell prices for walnuts, underscoring strong underlying value for quality kernels despite some correction from earlier peaks. For now, buyers face a gently rising market and may want to secure nearby coverage before new-crop volumes fully arrive and redefine the pricing landscape.

Prices

Supply & Demand

China, India and the US remain the dominant suppliers of walnuts globally, with China and India moving toward the core harvest window in September–October, and California also in active harvest. Recent reporting on Jammu & Kashmir underlines that India’s key walnut region still accounts for the overwhelming share of national output and is facing infrastructure and marketing bottlenecks, which tend to limit aggressive selling at low prices.

Indian wholesale mandi data for Jammu & Kashmir show very elevated walnut prices through September, with reported ranges typically around ₹60,000–₹80,000 per quintal and all‑time record monthly averages for the month, even after a modest correction in mid‑September. This strength in the in-shell segment supports firmness in kernel export offers from India. In China, broader statistics earlier in the year pointed to higher overall walnut output, but farmgate prices have been subdued versus prior years. Nevertheless, current FOB kernel quotations at Dalian are nudging up as exporters sense improving overseas demand and limited farmer willingness to sell aggressively ahead of full harvest.

In the US, California’s 2026 walnut harvest is underway under mostly seasonal weather, and early indications from trade commentaries suggest a focus on quality sorting and managing carry-in stocks. While we avoid quoting non‑EUR prices, indications from Indian wholesale markets and the general firmness in premium kernel segments underpin the moderately bullish tone in FOB offers from all three key origins.

Weather & Crop Conditions (CN, IN, US)

In Dalian and the wider Liaoning coastal belt, September 2026 weather has been seasonally warm and largely dry, with daytime highs mostly in the mid‑20s °C and limited heavy rainfall episodes. This pattern is favourable for late fruit development and harvest logistics, reducing short‑term weather risk to Chinese walnut supply and keeping the focus on demand and logistics rather than crop loss.

For Indian walnuts, the main producing areas in Jammu & Kashmir typically harvest from mid‑September onward. Local reporting this month highlights structural challenges like poor processing infrastructure and marketing channels rather than acute 2026 weather damage, though earlier seasons have seen productivity pressure from adverse weather and aging orchards. In the US, California’s Central Valley has entered the nut harvest period with generally benign late‑summer conditions; no major 2026 weather shock has been flagged in the last few days, reducing the likelihood of a sudden supply squeeze from this origin.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Firm internal prices in India: State‑level mandi data for Jammu & Kashmir show that the 30‑day average walnut price has climbed strongly versus earlier in the season, confirming robust domestic demand and limited farmer selling at lower levels.
• Gradual uptick in Chinese FOB offers: All tracked Dalian walnut kernel categories have moved up by EUR 0.05 in the latest update, signalling the end of the summer flat period and the start of a firmer pre‑harvest pricing phase.
• Stable to firmer US premiums: US organic light halves (FOB London) have also posted a small increase, consistent with steady demand for high‑quality, certified product and cautious selling while the new crop is evaluated.
• Macro and currency backdrop: While we do not convert currencies, recent volatility in key producer currencies versus the euro can alter export competitiveness; Chinese and Indian suppliers may adjust EUR denominated offers in response, even when local currency prices are more stable.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• For buyers: Near‑term bias is modestly upward in all three origins. Consider covering short‑term kernel needs now, particularly for higher grades (light halves and quarters), while avoiding over‑committing for late‑season positions until more concrete yield and quality data arrive from China and California.
• For sellers: The slight firming in FOB prices, plus strong Indian internal values, argues for patience on large spot discounts. Staggered sales into any further demand-led rallies may capture better average returns, especially for organic and premium colour grades.
• Risk watch: Monitor potential late‑September weather events in Chinese and US walnut belts and any new policy or logistics constraints in Jammu & Kashmir that could restrict flows and tighten kernels further.

3‑day directional view (price trend in EUR, not absolute levels):

• CN (Dalian, FOB kernels): Slightly firmer bias as exporters test marginally higher offers amid steady demand and favourable harvest weather.
• IN (New Delhi, FOB kernels): Steady‑to‑firm, supported by high domestic in‑shell prices in Jammu & Kashmir and ongoing festival‑season stocking.
• US (FOB London, US origin kernels): Mostly steady with a mild upward tilt, contingent on early California crop quality and European retail demand signals.