Walnut Kernels Hold Firm as Chinese Offers Edge Higher

Walnut kernel prices are broadly steady across origins, with slightly firmer Chinese FOB Dalian offers tightening the discount to US and Indian organic material. With no major supply shock in the last few days, the market is trading a narrow range while watching weather in China, California and India for early signals on the 2026/27 crop. Spot activity is moderate, with buyers in Europe and Asia still focused on nearby coverage rather than aggressively extending forward. In China, seasonal plum-rain patterns in eastern and southern regions contrast with relatively stable, warm conditions in northern inland areas, leaving current crop logistics unaffected. In the US and India, no fresh weather extremes have been reported over the past three days that would immediately alter production expectations, so merchants are mostly managing inventory and basis rather than recalculating crop sizes. Short term, the price story is about origin spreads and limited seller urgency rather than fundamentals shifting.

Prices

All prices converted from recent USD indications at ~1 EUR = 1.07 USD and rounded.

Broader nut price references for China show walnuts around 2.22 EUR/kg at wholesale, underlining that current export kernel offers in Dalian are broadly aligned with a firm but not overheated domestic nut complex.

Supply & Demand

There have been no new official crop revisions or disruption headlines for walnuts in China, the US or India over the last three days. Trade flows remain normal, with Chinese exporters still competing aggressively in the pieces and broken segment, while US and Indian organic halves target premium bakery and retail channels.

In China, the main near-term factor is domestic nut demand, which has been supported by generally firm nut prices across categories. However, buyers in key importing regions continue to resist higher offers for lower grades, limiting the upside for Chinese suppliers despite slightly higher FOB indications this week.

Weather Snapshot (CN, US, IN)

China (CN)

The onset of the plum-rain season along the Yangtze region is bringing bouts of heavy rain and humidity to parts of East and Southwest China, but this is away from many of the main northern walnut belt areas. Recent city-level forecasts earlier in June highlighted warm to hot but largely fair conditions in northern coastal areas such as Dalian, supporting normal logistics and storage for existing stock.

United States (US – California focus)

No major, dated news in the last three days points to acute weather stress in California walnut orchards. Trade and extension sources remain focused on pest management and orchard practices rather than emergency responses to heat or storms, indicating that, for now, growing conditions are within a manageable band for mid-season.

India (IN – Himalayan belt)

Recent regional news out of Jammu & Kashmir during late June has focused more on general weather and public issues than on any dramatic agricultural disruptions. No fresh, walnut-specific weather alerts over the past three days suggest that tree development is proceeding normally at this stage of the season.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stable origin spreads: Chinese non-organic pieces and broken remain significantly discounted versus organic halves from India and the US. This keeps China competitive in price-sensitive markets, even after the small week-on-week uptick in Dalian FOBs.
• No new crop shock: Over the past three days there have been no dated, credible reports of frost, hail, extreme heat or flooding in core walnut regions severe enough to change 2026 harvest expectations in CN, US or IN.
• Healthy nut complex: China’s nut price panel still shows solid levels across several nut categories, with walnuts priced in the mid-range. This backdrop supports current walnut values but does not yet justify a sharp rally.

3–5 Day Trading Outlook & Price Bias

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers (food industry, packers): Consider covering short-term needs in Chinese pieces and broken now, as the small recent price firming and supportive domestic nut complex reduce the likelihood of near-term discounts, while upside risk remains modest.
• Sellers (especially CN exporters): Maintain offers but avoid aggressive price hikes; the slight firming is supported, yet importers still have alternatives from US and IN premiums and may shift origins if differentials narrow too quickly.
• Premium segment (organic halves US/IN): With stable quotes and no fresh weather scare, buyers can continue to phase purchases, but should monitor July weather closely for any sudden shift in risk premia.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• CN (FOB Dalian, kernels – non-organic): Bias: Slightly firmer. Recent modest gains and a firm domestic nut complex suggest a mild upward or sideways drift over the next three days, rather than a pullback.
• US (FOB West Coast for export, kernels – organic halves, EUR equivalent): Bias: Stable. No new weather or policy drivers; prices likely to track within current range as buyers wait for clearer signals on the new crop.
• IN (FOB ports, kernels – organic halves): Bias: Stable to slightly firm. Limited fresh export selling pressure and absence of negative crop news point to steady pricing, with a small upside risk if rupee or logistics costs move.