US in-shell walnut exports surge as kernels follow with steadier gains
US walnut shipments more than double on strong in-shell exports to Turkey and MENA, while kernel demand in Europe and stable EUR prices keep the market balanced.
Prices
Chinese-origin walnut kernels on an FOB basis remain stable in EUR, with no changes recorded between late June and mid-July 2026 for standard commercial grades. Light amber and light pieces remain in a narrow range, indicating that the recent surge in US in-shell demand has not yet translated into broad-based kernel price inflation.
Relative price stability in the kernel complex contrasts with the sharp growth in in-shell shipments, suggesting that the current tightness is more visible in specific export lanes (notably Turkey and MENA for in-shell) than in global kernel availability.
Supply & Demand
US walnut shipments during the current 2025/26 marketing season have accelerated markedly. In-shell shipments in May reached about 12.86 million pounds, more than double the 5.56 million pounds shipped in the same month a year earlier, almost entirely driven by exports, which rose to roughly 12.50 million pounds from 5.23 million pounds.
Season-to-date total walnut shipments are approaching 300 million pounds, more than twice last year’s level, with export shipments up around 114% and domestic movement up about 47%. Recent California Walnut Board data through June confirm that in-shell-equivalent shipments for September–June are roughly 25% higher year-on-year and that the industry’s shipped-and-committed position now covers essentially the full 2025/26 crop, underscoring the strength of export pull and the rapid drawdown of available stocks.
Turkey has emerged as a dominant buyer of US in-shell walnuts, with shipments rising nearly fivefold this season. The wider Middle East and Africa region has increased imports by close to 395%, from about 37 million pounds to around 183 million pounds, with notable growth into the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco. By contrast, in-shell shipments to Europe are down roughly 5% to 53.1 million pounds, with exports to Spain off about 13%, and shipments to India lower by nearly 10%, highlighting a clear reorientation of trade flows.
In the Asia-Pacific region, overall in-shell exports are up about 5% to 37 million pounds, supported by an 88% rise in shipments to Vietnam. The cumulative effect is that US origin is increasingly oriented toward Turkey, MENA and selected Asia-Pacific markets, while some traditional demand centres such as India and parts of Europe rely more on kernels or alternative origins, including China and local suppliers.
Fundamentals
Kernel shipments have also strengthened, though less spectacularly than in-shell. In May, US kernel movement reached about 39.27 million pounds, up roughly 23% from 31.82 million pounds a year earlier. Export kernel shipments climbed by about 41%, while domestic kernel movement increased by around 2%, indicating that international demand is the primary driver of kernel growth.
Europe remains the key kernel outlet. Season-to-date European kernel imports from the US have increased around 24% to 168.9 million pounds, with Germany up roughly 32% and robust purchases from Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy. This strong kernel offtake helps absorb the large US crop and, together with firm in-shell exports, has pushed the shipped-and-committed ratio to more than 100% of the current crop by June, suggesting a comparatively tight carry-out into the 2026/27 season.
At the same time, stable kernel prices in EUR for Chinese and premium organic origins indicate that global kernel supply is still adequate. China remains an important volume supplier of kernels at competitive prices, while US and Indian organic kernels continue to command a noticeable premium. The combination of strong US shipments and stable Chinese offers suggests a fundamentally firm but not yet supply-constrained kernel market.
Outlook & Weather
In California, summer weather in July is largely within seasonal norms, with no widespread extreme heat or flood events reported over the last few days that would materially alter 2026 crop prospects. Localised heat waves remain a risk during nut fill, but current forecasts do not indicate a major weather shock for the short term. For buyers, the main near-term driver will therefore remain shipment pace and export demand rather than sudden supply disruption.
Looking ahead to the next three months, the combination of very strong export shipments, a high shipped-and-committed ratio and a modestly smaller expected 2026/27 crop implies limited downside for in-shell prices and a gradually firmer undertone for kernels. However, abundant Chinese kernels and varying demand conditions in India and some Asian markets should cap sharp price spikes, particularly for standard kernel grades.
Trading Outlook
- In-shell buyers (Turkey, MENA, Asia): Consider advancing purchases for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, as current shipment strength and a tight US balance sheet reduce the likelihood of significantly cheaper in-shell offers in EUR.
- Kernel buyers in Europe: Short-covering for standard light pieces and quarters can be executed gradually; abundant Chinese offers at ≈2.30–3.30 EUR/kg FOB and strong US kernel availability suggest a relatively stable price band in the near term.
- Producers and handlers: Strong in-shell demand into Turkey and MENA justifies a firmer stance on in-shell price negotiations, while maintaining competitive kernel pricing to defend market share in slower destinations such as India and some Asia-Pacific markets.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- FOB China, kernels (all main grades): Sideways; prices expected to remain close to 2.30–3.30 EUR/kg over the next three days.
- FOB Europe, US-origin kernels: Slightly firm bias on nearby positions, reflecting tight US balance, but no sharp moves anticipated in the very short term.
- FOB US West Coast, in-shell (export lanes): Firm; strong committed position and robust Turkey/MENA demand support stable-to-higher indications in EUR.