Walnut Kernels Hold Steady as China Export Flows Shift

Chinese, Indian and US walnut kernel prices are broadly stable into 28 August 2026, with only a modest firming in organic grades. No weather or crop shock is currently forcing prices, leaving trade flows and buyer timing as the main short‑term drivers. Spot activity remains moderate. Chinese FOB Dalian prices for standard kernels have been flat for most of August, while organic light halves from the US and India have inched higher in euro terms on steady demand and a still‑comfortable but closely watched outlook for the upcoming Californian and Kashmiri harvests. With weather in key origins generally favourable and no fresh policy shocks in India or China, the market is set for a quietly balanced end to the month, though export data from China show an important shift from in‑shell to shelled shipments.

Prices

Note: USD-denominated quotes converted at ≈1.09 USD/EUR; all values rounded.

Supply & Demand

• China (CN): Recent trade data show diverging export trends: July in‑shell walnut exports fell about 31% year on year, while shelled exports rose roughly 16%, underscoring strong demand for kernels despite some pressure on bulk in‑shell volumes.
• India (IN): Domestic walnut prices in Jammu & Kashmir mandis as of 27 August indicate a firm but not spiking market, consistent with our view of balanced local supply ahead of the main harvest window.
• United States (US): Industry commentary from California points to a broadly healthy 2026 walnut crop, with orchards entering pre‑harvest under mostly favourable conditions and no repeat of the extreme 2022 heat damage; supplies should be ample, underpinning competitive export offers.
• Global trade flows: China remains a key exporter into Belt and Road markets, and previous seasons’ strong export growth continues to frame expectations that Chinese origins will stay aggressive in shelled kernels once new‑crop volumes move, limiting upside for standard grades.

Weather & Crop Outlook (CN / IN / US)

• IN – Kashmir (core walnut belt): The meteorological service in Srinagar expects hot and humid conditions with scattered showers across Jammu & Kashmir through 30 August, before rain activity increases from 31 August. This pattern supports late‑season nut fill without immediate harvest disruption, though any heavier rains into September would raise shell staining and drying risks.
• US – California walnut regions: Recent pre‑harvest reports describe dry, sunny and seasonable weather heading into the 2026 harvest, with temperatures mostly in the mid‑80s to low‑90s °F and no critical heatwave in sight. This contrasts sharply with 2022’s damaging extremes and points to good quality and orderly harvest progression this year.
• CN – Northern China: No major adverse weather has been reported in the last few days in key walnut provinces; with harvest still ahead in many orchards, the absence of acute stress supports the current calm price environment for FOB Dalian kernels.

Market Fundamentals

• Flat CN kernel curve: Chinese kernel offers from Dalian have traded in a narrow band throughout August, with light quarters and standard pieces unchanged over the past two weeks. This suggests sellers are well‑covered and not yet under pressure to discount ahead of new‑crop arrivals.
• Premium for organic and origin differentiation: Organic light halves from India and the US continue to command a sizeable premium over Chinese conventional pieces, reflecting both organic certification costs and origin branding. Modest euro‑term gains this week mirror firm demand from European and Middle Eastern buyers and limited nearby availability of top grades.
• Trade flows favour kernels: The recent shift in China from in‑shell to shelled exports indicates processors are capturing more value from cracking and sorting, which should support kernel prices relative to in‑shell and keep global kernel supply well distributed into consuming markets.

3‑Day Price Bias & Trading Outlook (CN / IN / US)

• CN – Dalian FOB kernels (next 3 days): With no fresh weather or policy drivers and export demand steady, we expect a sideways price bias for Chinese light quarters and pieces through 31 August, within ±1% of current EUR levels.
• IN – FOB New Delhi organic halves: Hot, humid weather in Kashmir ahead of heavier rains should keep sellers cautious but not panicked; near‑term prices are likely to stay firm to sideways, with any upside capped by competition from US and CN offers.
• US – FOB California organic halves: Favourable pre‑harvest weather and expectations of an ample crop argue for a slightly softer to stable bias in the very near term as forward selling continues, though high‑quality organic lots should retain a premium over Chinese conventional kernels.

Focused trading suggestions

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Use the current stable CN FOB market to lock in light pieces and quarters for Q4/Q1 coverage; consider staggering purchases given the prospect of competitive new‑crop offers from both China and California.
• Buyers of organic halves: For IN and US origins, consider partial forward coverage now, as premiums look justified by quality and there is limited near‑term downside while demand from Europe and the Middle East remains resilient.
• Sellers (CN exporters, IN/US shippers): Maintain offer discipline on higher grades but stay flexible on broken and amber pieces to compete with rising Chinese shelled exports and avoid building inventory ahead of peak harvest.

3‑day regional outlook snapshot

• CN – Dalian FOB kernels: Stable; tight ±1% band around current EUR levels expected through 31 August.
• IN – New Delhi FOB organic halves: Firm, with a slight upward bias if rains intensify earlier than forecast in Kashmir.
• US – California FOB organic halves: Stable to marginally easier as favourable weather underpins confidence in new‑crop availability.