The International Sugar Organisation (ISO) expects a deficit of 330 thousand tonnes in global sugar production. It remains to be seen how this situation will affect prices.
Brazilian sugar production could rise to 43 million tonnes in 2024/25, surpassing the current record.
Sugar cane crushing is expected to be between 625 and 640 million tonnes in the production cycle that begins this April and ends in March 2025.Sugar production in Brazil’s central-south region could set a new record in the 2024/25 crop year. Crop year begins this April, surpassing the current cycle (2023/24), which industry estimates at more than 43 million tonnes.
High crop in the south of the country
The highest sugar mix in the 2023/24 harvest was recorded in the centre-south of the country, as lower oil prices and less stable prices in real terms on the international scene could affect competitiveness by lowering petrol prices at the pump.
Stakeholders comment on sweetener mix
Despite a possible 3% decline in cane production, market participants believe that the largest volume of sugar next season could come from a larger sweetener production mix. They expect more than 50% of cane to be used for sugar,
Does Europe need more sugar than we thought it would?
According to the Euroaktiv; The EU needs “more and not less” supply from Kyiv, according to sugar-using food producers such as Coca-Cola, Barilla, and Lactalis. The statement directly contradicts the demands of EU sugar beet growers, while Romanian farmers are blocking the borders in protest at the growing Ukrainian agricultural imports.
Impact of the sugar deficit
The sugar supply gap in Europe is between 2 and 3.5 million tonnes per year, resulting in price increases of up to 20% for finished products. This shortage has had a negative impact on various industries, including confectionery, and has caused considerable concern among trade organisations. Germany’s national confectionery association, the BDSI, has reported a 2.1% drop in cocoa grinding figures, which has had a direct impact on the confectionery industry.
Market giant Two major producers in trouble
In India, the world’s second largest sugar producer, where cane production is struggling, sweetener prices on the exchanges are also likely to continue to follow climate challenges. Production in Thailand, the world’s second largest sugar exporter, is also declining, affecting the country’s share of the global market. Brazil will continue to play a key role in the global supply and demand balance.