Indian Chickpea Market Softens but Nearing Seasonal Floor

Indian chickpea prices have edged lower amid softer mill demand and peak arrivals, but most traders see limited downside from current levels as supplies are set to tighten into late May. Government procurement and constrained yellow pea imports are capping downside, with the market expected to stabilise ahead of new kharif sowing decisions. The current weakness is driven primarily by seasonal arrival pressure in key producing markets in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and a temporary pullback in dal mill buying in Delhi. Producer prices remain stubbornly below the Minimum Support Price, despite extended government procurement in Maharashtra and sizeable port stocks of imported chickpeas. However, arrivals are already easing in western India and import economics for yellow peas remain unattractive, suggesting that supply-side pressure should fade over the next 2–4 weeks and allow prices to base out rather than break significantly lower.

Prices & Spreads

On 11 May 2026, India's chickpea market weakened modestly, with most domestic lines slipping by the equivalent of about EUR 0.02–0.03 per 100 kg. Delhi trade for Rajasthan-origin chickpeas eased by roughly EUR 0.24 per tonne, to around EUR 52–53 per 100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-origin values moved in a similar range. Jaipur-line material also softened slightly, to the low EUR 50s per 100 kg, underscoring broad but shallow pressure across origin lines.

Producer wholesale prices remain below the government's Minimum Support Price, which is currently near the mid-EUR 50s per 100 kg, and this gap has persisted through the current season. Recent New Delhi FCA export offers for Indian chickpeas sit around EUR 1.03/kg for 42–44 count material and just above EUR 1.01/kg for 44–46 count, indicating that export parity remains workable and offering some support on the downside for better-quality grades.

Supply & Demand Balance

Domestic supply is currently dominated by high seasonal arrivals from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which are expected to diminish meaningfully before the end of May. This tapering of flows should ease day-to-day selling pressure at producing wholesale markets and help underpin prices from late May onwards. In Maharashtra, the central government has extended both the quantity and the deadline for chickpea procurement, but arrivals there have already declined from earlier-season peaks.

On the demand side, dal processing mills in Delhi have temporarily reduced purchases, contributing to the latest price slippage. At the same time, the anticipated substitution from yellow peas into chickpeas has been slower than many traders had expected. Total yellow pea imports this season are believed to be running below last year, which should, in theory, favour chickpea consumption, but the demand shift is proving gradual rather than abrupt.

Imports, Competing Pulses & Currency

International offers underline a relatively firm import floor. Australian chickpeas for May and June shipment are quoted around EUR 0.58/kg on a cost-and-freight container basis, with new-crop November and December shipment slightly higher near EUR 0.59/kg. Tanzanian chickpeas for May shipment are indicated close to EUR 0.56/kg C&F. These levels, combined with freight and domestic handling, help to cap the downside for Indian origin in export-oriented segments.

Yellow peas remain constrained by a 30% customs duty and a weaker rupee trading near 95 per US dollar. The duty-inclusive landed cost for yellow peas now stands around the low-to-mid EUR 40s per 100 kg at Indian ports, broadly in line with but still slightly below prevailing domestic chickpea prices in the low EUR 40s per 100 kg. This narrow margin, together with policy uncertainty, is keeping yellow pea imports subdued and limiting competitive pressure on chickpeas.

Short-Term Outlook & Weather Context

Over the next 2–4 weeks, the market backdrop points to gradual stabilisation rather than a sustained downtrend. As arrivals from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra continue to wind down through the second half of May, the daily supply overhang should diminish. With procurement programmes still active and limited import competition from yellow peas, traders generally see only modest further downside from current levels.

Weather is not an immediate driver for the current crop, but it will become important as the new kharif season approaches from June. Sowing decisions for India's summer-sown pulses will be influenced by current chickpea price relationships versus other crops and the perceived reliability of MSP enforcement. European buyers should recognise that today's price softness is mainly seasonal and logistical, rather than rooted in a deterioration of underlying demand.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers in Europe and the Middle East: Consider layering in coverage for Q3–Q4 needs while Indian prices trade below MSP and domestic arrival pressure is still visible; the risk-reward favours gradual buying rather than waiting for significantly lower levels.
• Indian millers and stockists: Use current dips to replenish working stocks, but avoid aggressive forward length; a stabilising rather than sharply rising price path is the base case into early June.
• Producers and domestic sellers: With prices below MSP and procurement windows extended, it may be prudent to stagger sales rather than rush deliveries into weakening spot markets as arrivals tail off.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR terms)

• India, domestic wholesale (Delhi, MP/Rajasthan origin): Slightly softer to sideways; further moves likely limited to a narrow band as arrivals peak and begin to decline.
• India, export-grade FOB New Delhi: Mostly steady; international offers from Australia and Tanzania provide a firm floor, while softer domestic sentiment caps any sharp near-term rally.
• Imported alternatives (yellow peas at Indian ports): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms, but still only marginally competitive versus domestic chickpeas, keeping substitution moderate.