Raisin Prices Edge Higher as China Tightens Spread to Turkish Benchmarks

Raisin prices are mildly firmer, with Chinese and Indian offers drifting higher and Turkey holding a premium, but without aggressive upside momentum. Chinese sultana prices into Europe remain competitive in EUR terms, helped by strong Xinjiang supply and a relatively stable EUR/CNY. The global raisin market is currently characterised by firm but orderly pricing. Turkish export benchmarks are broadly steady in May, while China, supported by a larger 2025/26 crop and competitive logistics into Europe, continues to narrow the gap to Turkish origin. India is recovering from earlier weather-related grape issues, but export-grade availability remains somewhat constrained. In China’s Xinjiang heartland, very hot and mostly dry conditions dominate the 30‑day outlook, supporting drying but raising medium‑term stress risks if heat persists. For the next few days, prices are expected to remain steady to slightly firmer in EUR, with buyers advised to secure near‑term needs before summer heat and currency volatility potentially add risk premia.

Prices & Spreads

Using a working rate of roughly 1 EUR ≈ 8.0 CNY and 1 EUR ≈ 1.16 USD based on recent FX indications,  current spot offers translate into the following approximate EUR levels:

External benchmarks confirm that Turkish export quotations in early May were firm but largely stable in EUR, with China highlighted as increasingly price‑competitive into Europe.  This aligns with the modest uptick now visible in Chinese offers while Turkish levels remain broadly unchanged.

Supply & Demand Snapshot

Recent industry estimates point to a significantly larger 2025/26 raisin crop in China, with production in Xinjiang expected to rise from around 130,000 MT in 2024/25 to roughly 190,000 MT, boosting total Chinese raisin supply.  At the same time, Türkiye’s supply tightens somewhat year‑on‑year, while India sees a marked drop from a previous high crop, contributing to a more balanced global picture. 

Turkish customs data show raisin exports around USD 106.9 million in Q1 2026, underlining that Turkey remains the key benchmark supplier to Europe and the UK.  Market commentary notes that buyers have increasingly turned to Chinese origin when Turkish or Indian material was tight or expensive, further underpinning demand for China’s competitively priced sultanas.  Consumption appears resilient, with no fresh demand shock reported over the last few days.

Fundamentals & Weather (China Focus)

The latest extended forecast for Turpan in Xinjiang – China’s key raisin region – points to predominantly hot and dry conditions over the coming weeks, with many days above 35 °C and maximums reaching about 42 °C around 1–2 June and only a few days with rain.  In late May, this supports vineyard growth and later drying prospects, while also raising irrigation needs.

For the next three days specifically (27–29 May 2026), forecasts for Turpan indicate sunny to mostly clear skies, high daytime temperatures in the mid‑ to upper‑30s and low precipitation risk.  Near term, this is neutral to slightly supportive for Chinese supply expectations, with no weather threat currently priced into the market. Currency-wise, EUR/CNY has traded around 8.0 recently,  keeping Chinese offers in EUR relatively stable despite domestic cost movements.

Trading Outlook

• Short term (next 1–3 weeks): Expect a sideways to mildly firmer bias in EUR prices, led by Chinese and Indian offers edging up while Turkish benchmarks remain firm but stable. Buyers with Q3 coverage gaps may consider adding on any dips.
• Origin selection: China currently offers the most competitive CFR Europe pricing in standard sultanas versus Turkey, with India slightly higher for premium golden grades. End-users seeking cost optimisation can increase China share while maintaining some Turkish coverage for quality and continuity.
• Risk factors to monitor: Persistent heat and any early‑season weather anomalies in Xinjiang, evolving export policies or logistics constraints in Turkey, and FX volatility in EUR/CNY and EUR/TRY that could quickly shift relative origin competitiveness.

3‑Day Price Direction (EUR, Indicative)

• China sultanas, type 9 RTU (CN origin, EU FCA): Steady to +0.01–0.03 EUR/kg over the next three days, underpinned by firm demand and stable weather in Xinjiang.
• Turkey sultanas, type 9 (FOB/TR): Largely stable in EUR; no fresh fundamental or policy news suggests significant movement through 30 May.
• India raisins (golden/brown AA, FOB IN): Slightly firmer tone but limited upside in the next three days, with previous grape weather issues already reflected in current offers.