Almond prices face selling pressure as large California arrivals meet cautious demand. Overview of prices, supply, sentiment, and short-term trading outlook.
Prices
Quoted almond kernel prices in EUR have been broadly stable over the past three weeks, but the underlying tone has shifted softer due to anticipated import pressure rather than visible price declines so far.
| Product | Origin | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Change vs. previous quote | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels, carmel, SSR 18/20 | US | FAS Washington D.C. | 6.75 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
| Almonds kernels, carmel, SSR 20/22 | US | FAS Washington D.C. | 6.75 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
| Almonds kernels, natural 27/30 nonpareil, organic | US | FOB Washington D.C. | 9.40 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
| Almond kernels, marcona 12/14 | ES | FOB Madrid | 6.70 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
| Almond kernels, valencia 10/12 | ES | FOB Madrid | 7.20 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
| Almond kernels, guara bajo 12 | ES | FOB Madrid | 5.65 | no change | 2026-10-16 |
The absence of immediate price cuts despite softer sentiment suggests sellers are still trying to defend current levels while waiting to see how quickly the additional containers clear into wholesale channels.
Supply & Demand
The key driver of the current correction is the expectation of around 2,100 containers of imported almonds, largely from California, entering the market. This looming influx encourages buyers to step back, anticipating better availability and possibly more competitive offers once cargoes land and are re‑offered.
On the origin side, recent data from the Almond Board of California show very strong export dynamics. September 2026 shipments reached about 232.5 million lbs, up nearly 18% year‑on‑year, with export volumes up roughly 28%, led by India and several Asian destinations. Domestic US offtake, by contrast, has been weaker, leaving origin sellers more dependent on export channels.
This combination—robust exports out of California, but a sudden jump in container arrivals into the destination market—means local supply visibility is high. Traders and wholesalers are therefore less willing to hold large positions ahead of peak arrival weeks.
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Fundamentals & Weather
Fundamentally, the global almond balance still appears relatively firm. Recent industry analysis points to almond prices remaining well above last year on the back of strong export demand, relatively tight inventories, and expectations for a smaller California crop, with harvest for 2026 largely complete and quality reported as good overall.
Weather conditions during the main harvest window in California were generally favorable, allowing for a quick pickup, although an early‑October heat episode added some stress at the tail end of field operations. Smaller kernel sizing in the new crop has tightened availability of larger premium grades, which helps explain the relative resilience of high‑spec and organic quotations despite softer overall sentiment.
At destination, however, current trading is less about global balance and more about near‑term logistics. The anticipated rise in import availability, combined with wholesale buyers resisting higher replacement costs, is enough to cap further upside in the short term and encourage light destocking by some traders.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Over the coming 1–3 weeks, the almond market is likely to trade sideways to slightly softer as the 2,100 containers work their way into local distribution. A decisive move lower would probably require either slower absorption by end‑users or more aggressive selling from importers facing financing or storage constraints.
- For industrial buyers / roasters: Consider scaling into coverage on dips rather than chasing the market. The expected inflow of containers should offer selective spot opportunities without a structural collapse in prices.
- For importers and wholesalers: Manage exposure carefully ahead of peak arrivals. Avoid over‑extending long positions; focus on back‑to‑back business and maintain flexibility on grades with the highest incoming volumes.
- For producers and handlers at origin: Given firm global export indicators but softer destination sentiment, prioritize sales into markets with active demand (e.g. India and parts of Asia) and remain cautious about offering large volumes aggressively into already well‑supplied regions.
3-Day Directional View
- US FAS (carmel SSR, nonpareil): Nominal prices around current levels, with a slight downside bias as container arrivals begin to influence offer ideas.
- Spanish FOB (valencia, marcona, guara): Mostly steady; any weakness is expected to be modest and driven by competitive pressure from imported California kernels.
- Premium / organic grades: Largely stable; constrained availability of larger sizes and organic material should continue to support a relatively firm differential versus standard kernels.