Almonds Firm as Festive Buying Lifts Dry Fruit Markets

Domestic dry-fruit demand ahead of the festive season is keeping almond prices firm, supported by active wholesale buying for gifting, sweets and household use. Almonds are moving in a generally stronger trend alongside cashews, pistachios and other nuts, even as some competing products like makhana face selling pressure due to ample supply. Wholesalers and packers are stepping up purchases of almonds as part of broader dry-fruit assortments for Diwali and wedding-season demand. Retail and gifting segments are focusing increasingly on budget-oriented packs, but almonds retain their core role in premium mixes and confectionery. Against this backdrop, international benchmarks show stable but elevated levels, with US and Spanish kernels holding gains and finding support from robust Indian import demand and a relatively tighter global supply balance.

Prices

Buying interest for almonds in the domestic dry-fruit trade remains solid, and market tone is described as firm rather than aggressively bullish. Traders report that almonds, along with cashews, pistachios, walnuts, raisins and dried dates, are all trading on a steady to firmer bias as festive demand builds, while makhana is under pressure due to heavier production and more aggressive selling.

On the export side, current quotations indicate a stable plateau at recently improved levels. In Washington D.C., US-origin almond kernels carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 are indicated at 6.75 EUR/kg FAS, while organic US natural nonpareil 27/30 is steady at 9.40 EUR/kg FOB. From Spain, FOB Madrid offers show Marcona 12/14 at 6.70 EUR/kg, Valencia 10/12 at 7.20 EUR/kg and Guara bajo 12 at 5.65 EUR/kg, all unchanged in recent updates, confirming a consolidated price range rather than fresh upside.

Supply & Demand

Festive-calendar buying is the main near-term driver. Wholesale demand for almonds in India has picked up noticeably as traders build stocks for gifting, sweets manufacturing and household consumption, in line with reports of increased traffic in local dry-fruit markets and higher turnarounds for almonds and cashews in particular. This surge comes on top of a broader trend of strong import pull from India, where demand for almonds has risen sharply ahead of the festival window.

Globally, California export data confirm very strong offtake into India and other price-sensitive emerging markets, with exports to India more than doubling year-on-year in recent months and helping overall shipments run comfortably ahead of last season. At the same time, traders report that higher prices are starting to curb some discretionary buying, with a modest shift towards relatively cheaper nuts such as cashews or seed mixes, especially in lower-priced gift assortments.

Fundamentals

On the supply side, the California 2026/27 crop is expected to be smaller than last year’s, and the industry is entering the season with slightly lower carry-in stocks. These factors are tightening the balance compared with the oversupplied conditions of previous years and are supporting kernel prices across major origins. Early Nonpareil quality has been reported as good, but availability of larger kernel sizes is more limited, widening premiums for select sizes and grades.

Demand growth remains uneven by region. India and several emerging markets are absorbing higher volumes, while some traditional destinations in Western Europe and North America show softer domestic usage in response to price-sensitive consumers. Within India, strong festive buying is evident, yet retailers note increasing attention to pack size and mix composition, with almonds still the flagship nut but sometimes used more sparingly in budget assortments where makhana and seeds are employed as volume fillers.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

Into the immediate 2–4 week horizon, the almond market is likely to remain supported by seasonal demand and a tighter global supply backdrop. Upside from current levels may be capped by consumer resistance, but a meaningful correction appears unlikely as long as Indian and other Asian import programs stay active through the core festive and early wedding season.

• Importers and wholesalers: Consider maintaining at least normal coverage through the main festive weeks, focusing on core sizes such as US carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 and popular Spanish Valencia grades, as price risk appears skewed mildly to the upside while origin stocks are drawing down.
• Roasters and sweet manufacturers: Secure key almond needs early for premium lines, while using flexible recipes (greater use of cashews, raisins or makhana) in value segments to protect margins if local prices edge higher.
• Retail packers: Emphasise differentiated pack sizes and blended mixes to manage consumer price sensitivity, keeping a clear premium tier with higher almond share for gift-oriented demand.

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