American In‑Shell Walnuts Surge on Export Boom to Turkey and MENA

American in-shell walnut demand has accelerated sharply this season, driven by export-led growth and strong pull from Turkey and the wider Middle East & Africa region. Kernel demand is improving more moderately, underpinned by steady European buying and firmer Chinese kernel prices, which together support a generally firm global price tone. The walnut market is transitioning from a buyer’s market in previous seasons to a much more balanced environment. Rapid drawdown of US in-shell inventories, tight export logistics into Turkey and MENA, and stable to slightly higher kernel prices from China point to limited downside in the near term. With warm, mostly dry weather in California’s Central Valley but no acute stress yet reported, attention is shifting from crop risk to how aggressively buyers should cover forward before new season supply arrives.

Prices

Export-driven strength in American in-shell walnuts and firmer Chinese kernels are underpinning a modestly bullish price environment in EUR terms.

• China FOB Dalian kernel offers mid-June 2026 are broadly steady to slightly higher versus early June in USD; converted to EUR, mainstream conventional kernels are trading around EUR 2.10–3.05/kg FOB depending on grade, with no recent markdowns in the last two weeks (based on internal offer data and stable USD/EUR).
• Organic and premium origin kernels remain at a clear premium: India light halves around EUR 4.85–4.90/kg FOB and US organic light halves near EUR 4.10–4.15/kg FOB, reflecting solid demand for higher-quality material and tighter availability.
• With Chinese export prices for Europe having risen by about USD 70–160/t in recent weeks, global kernels have likely put in a short-term floor, reducing the probability of significant price declines ahead of the new crop.

Supply & Demand

Demand for American in-shell walnuts has surged this season, fundamentally tightening the balance sheet.

• Season-to-date US in-shell shipments are near 300 million pounds, more than double last year, with exports up about 114% and domestic sales around 47% higher. This has rapidly reduced carry-out risk that weighed on prices in previous campaigns.
• Turkey has emerged as a key destination, with US in-shell shipments nearly five times last year’s level. This reflects strong activity in re-export, processing and domestic consumption channels, positioning Turkey as a central hub for walnut flows into wider regional markets.
• The Middle East & Africa region shows exceptional growth: shipments rose by roughly 395%, from 37 million to 183 million pounds, with the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco all contributing to the surge as trade and consumption channels deepen.

Kernel demand is improving at a more moderate but still constructive pace.

• US kernel shipments in May 2026 reached 39,267 pounds, up 23% year-on-year; season-to-date kernel shipments are about 11% higher, with exports up 18%, signaling a healthy absorber of the larger in-shell throughput.
• Europe remains the anchor market for kernels: shipments have climbed 24% to 168.9 million pounds from 136.6 million, led by Germany (+32%), with Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy also buying more. This underpins a stable premium for high-quality kernels into European food and snack applications.
• Asia-Pacific is mixed: India is down around 10%, but Vietnam is up 88%, and exports to North America are up 44% with Central and South America also growing. This diversification reduces dependence on any single destination.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental backdrop for walnuts has turned notably tighter as robust shipments draw down stocks ahead of the next harvest.

• California Walnut Board data through April already showed elevated shipment volumes and declining marketable inventories; the strong May figures for in-shell and kernels suggest that end-season stocks will be materially lower than last year, supporting firmer pricing into early 2026/27.
• China, a major walnut producer and exporter, has seen kernel prices for Europe rise by roughly USD 70–160/t in recent weeks, a move that confirms firm global sentiment and helps lift the floor under international kernel values.

Weather conditions in key US production areas are seasonally warm but not yet a major concern for the upcoming crop.

• Forecasts for late June point to hot, dry conditions and elevated fire weather risk in Northern California and the Central Valley, but without immediate reports of stress on orchards.
• Medium-range US climate outlooks for July 2026 favor above-normal temperatures in much of the West, which may increase irrigation demand but are not inherently yield-threatening at this stage of nut development.

Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

Given the sharp acceleration in in-shell exports, firm kernel demand and improving price sentiment from China, the walnut market looks biased moderately higher into the new season, with limited downside unless a significantly larger-than-expected crop materializes.

• Importers / Industrial buyers (Europe, MENA): Consider covering a meaningful share of Q3–Q4 2026 requirements now, especially for light halves and quarters, as current EUR prices are relatively attractive versus historical peaks and stocks are tightening.
• Traders / Re-exporters (Turkey, UAE): Maintain long exposure in in-shell where possible; the strong pull from regional consumption and re-export, coupled with lower US ending stocks, argues for supportive basis levels into the early new-crop period.
• Retail and snack brands: Lock in premium kernel grades on dips rather than waiting for a broad correction; rising Chinese offers and solid European off-take reduce the likelihood of significantly cheaper raw material later this year.
• Risk factors to watch: Potential yield surprises in California and China, currency volatility affecting EUR-landed prices, and any demand slowdown in Turkey or key MENA markets that could temporarily loosen nearby availability.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• FOB China kernels (standard grades, EUR/kg): Sideways to slightly firmer; short-term range bias about +1–2% as offers remain stable and sentiment is supported.
• FOB Europe, US/European kernels (premium & organic, EUR/kg): Mostly steady; modest upward pressure likely if buyers accelerate Q3 coverage.
• In-shell US walnuts (export equivalent, EUR basis): Firm tone; no major pullbacks expected in the next few days given very strong season-to-date shipment pace.