Walnut Market Accelerates on Surging US Exports and Firm Chinese Prices

US walnuts are in a clear demand-driven upswing, with export shipments more than doubling year on year and prices in competing origins such as China moving higher. The near-term balance favors firm to slightly higher prices for high-quality in-shell and kernels, especially into the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. Strong international demand is reshaping walnut trade flows this season. US exporters are benefiting from exceptionally robust buying from Turkey and the wider MENA region, while kernel shipments into Europe and parts of Asia also expand. At the same time, Chinese export quotations have risen, and current offer levels in Asia and Europe suggest a stable to mildly bullish price environment. Buyers with uncovered Q3–Q4 needs face rising competition for premium grades, even as some Asian destinations like India remain more price-sensitive.

Prices

FOB offers for Chinese walnut kernels are broadly stable over the past month, after a modest increase in late June. Using an indicative EUR/USD rate of 0.92, current reference levels translate approximately as follows:

In China, export quotations for walnuts have increased by about 70–160 EUR/tonne (0.07–0.16 EUR/kg equivalent) in recent weeks, confirming a firmer tone for both in-shell and kernels. This aligns with the rapid growth in US export demand, especially from the Middle East and North Africa, which tightens the availability of competitively priced product.

Supply & Demand

US supply remains ample, but logistics and demand-side dynamics are the dominant drivers. Year-to-date in-shell walnut shipments have reached nearly 300 million pounds, more than doubling versus the same period last season. Overall export volumes are up around 114%, while domestic US shipments have expanded by 47%, pointing to broad-based consumption growth rather than a single regional spike.

The Middle East and Africa are the standout demand engines. Shipments to this combined region have jumped about 395%, from 37 million pounds to roughly 183 million pounds. Turkey has emerged as the fastest-growing single destination, with imports of US in-shell walnuts increasing nearly fivefold. Strong gains are also reported into the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco, where buyers appear to be rebuilding inventories and responding to competitive US pricing and quality.

Kernel demand is led by Europe. Total kernel shipments in May were 23% higher year on year, and cumulative kernel exports for the season are running about 18% above last season. Europe remains the largest outlet, with shipments up 24% thanks to solid buying from Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy. In Asia, Vietnam has increased purchases by 88% and Taiwan is also buying more, partly offsetting an approximate 10% decline in shipments to India. Overall, Asia-Pacific remains a modest but growing contributor to demand.

Fundamentals

The current walnut market is characterized by strong pull from diversified export destinations rather than a single dominant buyer. Rapid growth in MENA in-shell demand, firm European kernel consumption and robust Chinese pricing together signal that the market is effectively absorbing available supply. The surge in US shipments suggests that previous-season inventories are being cleared more rapidly than expected, reducing the risk of prolonged oversupply.

On the pricing side, the stabilization of Chinese FOB offers after June’s uptick indicates that the market has moved off its lows and is testing a higher equilibrium. The narrow week-on-week changes in Chinese kernel prices from late June to mid-July, combined with steady premiums for organic halves from the US and India, point to a market that is firm but not yet overheated. Any additional upside will likely depend on final crop expectations in the US and China and on whether MENA demand holds near current elevated levels into the new marketing year.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Importers in MENA and Europe: With US in-shell exports to the region already up nearly fourfold and Chinese prices firmer, consider covering a larger share of Q4 needs early, especially for premium sizes and light color kernels.
• Asian buyers (ex-India): Vietnam and Taiwan’s higher buying suggests growing competition for kernels; staggered purchases over the next 4–8 weeks may reduce exposure to further price increases.
• Industrial users in Europe: Given steady EUR-based offers for Chinese pieces and broken kernels, consider locking in volumes for value-added products while differentials to halves remain favorable.
• Producers and exporters: The combination of fast export drawdown and diversified demand argues for disciplined forward selling rather than aggressive discounting, particularly for high-quality in-shell and organic halves.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR-based)

• Chinese walnut kernels, FOB Dalian: Stable to slightly firmer in EUR/kg, with limited downside as long as US export demand remains strong.
• US walnut kernels, FOB Europe (London): Stable; premiums for organic halves likely maintained amid good European demand.
• Indian walnut kernels, FOB New Delhi: Stable, with some resistance to further upside given softer import demand into India but underlying global firmness limiting any notable declines.