Global walnut market strengthens on robust export demand, firmer Chinese offers and solid California shipments. Concise price and trading outlook in EUR.
Prices
Chinese walnut kernel offers (FOB Dalian) are stable to slightly firmer in early July. Light amber pieces 8–12 mm are indicated around EUR 2.10–2.20/kg, light pieces 8–12 mm at roughly EUR 2.60–2.70/kg, and light quarters near EUR 3.00–3.10/kg, after conversion from recent USD-denominated levels. Premium organic light halves from India and US-origin organic light halves shipped from London are assessed higher, near EUR 4.20–4.50/kg.
These price levels align with reports that Chinese walnut export offers to Europe have increased by about USD 70–160/tonne over the past two weeks, reflecting stronger global demand rather than supply tightness. The absence of meaningful price declines alongside sharply higher shipments suggests buyers are accepting the firmer pricing environment, especially for higher-quality and organic kernels.
Supply & Demand
Global supply from the current crop appears ample, but demand-side dynamics are clearly improving. In-shell walnut shipments from California in May reached about 12.86 million pounds, more than double the 5.56 million pounds shipped a year earlier. Cumulative season shipments are now close to 300 million pounds, with exports up roughly 114% year-on-year, underlining the strength of overseas buying.
Turkey has emerged as a key growth engine, with imports from California nearly five times higher than last year. Strong demand from the Middle East and Africa – particularly the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco – is further broadening the export base. This diversification reduces reliance on traditional European buyers and helps keep the supply pipeline flowing smoothly despite regional demand fluctuations.
Europe presents a more nuanced picture: strong growth in shipments to Germany contrasts with weaker flows into Spain and a slight overall softening in European demand. India has also imported somewhat less during the period. However, these pockets of weakness are more than offset by gains in Turkey, the Middle East, Africa and selected Asia-Pacific markets such as Vietnam, leaving global demand firmly positive.
Fundamentals & Drivers
The key fundamental driver this season is the synchronised improvement in export demand from multiple regions. California’s sharp export rebound and China’s stronger pricing signal that buyers are rebuilding pipelines after a period of cautious purchasing. With cumulative shipments already high, available carryout stocks may tighten modestly if the pace is maintained into late summer.
At the same time, the market is not facing acute supply shortages; rather, the bullish tone stems from demand catching up with existing inventories. Firmer Chinese export offers to Europe – up USD 70–160/tonne – confirm that sellers have regained some pricing power. Regional consumption differences (softer in Spain and India, stronger elsewhere) are being smoothed out by active inter-regional trade, helping maintain balanced fundamentals.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Assuming export momentum from California persists and Chinese offers remain firm, the walnut market is likely to stay well-supported over the coming weeks. Upside potential is moderate but underpinned by strong demand from Turkey, MENA and parts of Asia-Pacific, while downside risk appears limited as long as buyers continue to accept higher replacement costs. Weather in key producing regions bears monitoring but is not currently the primary driver of price direction.
- Buyers / Importers: Consider covering near-term needs promptly, especially for light halves and premium grades, to hedge against further incremental price increases driven by continued export strength.
- Sellers / Exporters: Maintain a firm pricing stance but remain flexible for strategic destinations (Spain, India) where demand is softer, using discounts selectively to protect market share.
- Traders: Focus on spreads between origins (California vs China) and qualities, as diversified demand and stable prices create opportunities in inter-regional arbitrage and grade differentials.
3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR)
- Chinese kernels, FOB Dalian: Sideways to slightly firmer; export demand remains solid, no clear sign of near-term easing.
- Premium organic kernels (India, US): Largely stable, supported by niche demand and limited availability of certified product.
- European import values: Expected to track current offers, with modest upside risk if freight or FX move unfavourably.