Chinese Walnut Kernels Hold Firm as Buyers Watch Weather in Key Origins

Chinese walnut kernel prices are stable at early-July levels, with a modest premium for quarters and halves, while Indian and US organic halves continue to trade at significantly higher values in EUR terms. Weather in China, California and India is being monitored, but no fresh supply shock has emerged that would justify a sharp price move in the next few days. Walnut trading is currently volume-light and price-driven, with buyers largely covered short term and testing Chinese offers against higher-priced Indian and US kernels. Global supply remains comfortable after strong 2025 crops and sizeable US inventories, while domestic demand in India and China underpins floors. Weather in California and key Asian origins will shape risk premia for the 2026/27 crop, but the immediate 3‑day outlook points to rangebound prices with only a slight firming bias for premium grades.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR using recent FX levels; they should be viewed as directional, not as firm offers.

Indian mandi-level in‑shell walnut prices are reported around INR 29,000 per quintal (≈ EUR 3.10–3.20/kg), indicating a firm domestic floor that helps keep kernel offers stable in EUR terms. Broader wholesale nut benchmarks in China put walnut values near EUR 2.20/kg, consistent with the currently competitive FOB Chinese kernel offers that anchor the global market.

Supply & Demand

Global walnut supply remains ample. Recent industry balances point to another large Northern Hemisphere crop in 2025/26, with China and the US together providing the bulk of world production and carrying comfortable stocks into the new season. This stock cushion is one of the main reasons current kernel prices are holding in a narrow band despite weather noise.

China continues to act as the price leader in kernels, especially for industrial grades, undercutting most competing origins and capturing demand from price‑sensitive buyers in MENA and South Asia. Indian walnut demand is driven mainly by its domestic market and high‑value festival consumption, with in‑shell prices and steady snack demand absorbing supplies and reducing aggressive export selling at today’s kernel values. US kernels, particularly organic and higher grades, remain in demand in Europe and premium Asian segments but must compete against lower‑priced Chinese origin, limiting upside in the near term.

Weather Watch: CN, US, IN

Market participants are focused on July weather in key growing regions. Recent commentary highlights that, while there have been episodes of early‑season heat in California and parts of China, no major yield‑threatening event has been reported in the last week for walnuts specifically. Short‑term forecasts for California’s Central Valley, a core US walnut region, indicate seasonally warm but not extreme temperatures in the coming days, keeping near‑term crop risk contained.

In India, the main walnut orchards of Jammu & Kashmir are outside the immediate monsoon flood‑risk hotspots this week, and there are no fresh reports of hail or severe storms damaging orchards in the last few days. In China, there are no new July‑onset weather alarms specific to walnuts; the market is instead attentive to general summer heat and rainfall distribution, but recent assessments still describe the 2026/27 outlook as weather‑dependent rather than already impaired. Overall, weather remains a watchpoint, but not yet a price driver for the next three days.

Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

• Stocks: Comfortable global stocks, especially in the US, are capping upside despite firm to stable kernel quotes.
• Relative pricing: China’s FOB kernel prices remain distinctly lower than Indian and US organic halves, maintaining its competitive edge and drawing incremental demand in cost‑sensitive channels.
• Demand: Retail and snack demand in major consuming countries is steady but not explosive, with buyers comfortable to purchase hand‑to‑mouth ahead of clearer signals on the new crop.
• Currencies & logistics: No abrupt FX or freight shocks have emerged in the last few days, leaving EUR‑denominated replacement costs broadly unchanged versus late June.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–7 Days)

• Buyers of Chinese kernels (CN): Consider scaling in limited spot or August–September coverage at current EUR levels, especially for light pieces and quarters, as competition among Chinese exporters and comfortable stocks should keep any near‑term rallies modest.
• Buyers of Indian organic halves (IN): Maintain staggered purchasing; domestic firmness and high in‑shell prices argue against waiting for deep discounts, but the large premium over Chinese origin caps near‑term upside, favouring gradual coverage rather than all‑in buying.
• Buyers of US organic halves (US): Use any small dips from FX or freight moves to extend coverage; sizeable inventories and absent weather shocks imply limited short‑term price risk, but upside could rebuild later in summer if California heat intensifies.
• Sellers: For all origins, holding offer ideas close to current levels appears reasonable; aggressive price hikes are unlikely to be accepted without a clear weather‑ or currency‑driven catalyst.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• CN (FOB Dalian, kernels): Prices expected stable to marginally firm (0–1% range), with competition among exporters limiting upside despite firm domestic nut complex.
• IN (FOB New Delhi, organic halves): Prices seen stable over the next three days; firm domestic in‑shell market and seasonal demand provide support, but high premium versus China constrains further gains.
• US (FOB, organic halves into EU/Asia): Prices likely flat, with ample stocks and benign short‑term California weather offsetting any minor demand upticks.