American Walnut Shipments Surge as Turkey and MENA Drive Demand

American in-shell walnut shipments are running sharply ahead of last season, driven by export demand from Turkey and the wider MENA region, tightening old-crop availability in some segments. Kernel demand is improving but remains more balanced, with only modest price firming so far. Export momentum has clearly shifted the market tone for American in-shell walnuts toward firm, while kernels trade in a narrower range. At the same time, regional demand patterns are diverging: Turkey and key Middle Eastern and African buyers are stepping in aggressively, while Europe softens and India eases back from last year’s highs. With season-to-date shipments already close to 300 million pounds in-shell and little urgency reported on either side of the market, the focus is turning to how quickly remaining stocks will clear before new crop and what this means for price risk into Q3.

Prices

FOB kernel indications converted to EUR suggest a generally stable to slightly firmer tone across origins. Recent offers (late June 2026) show:

(USD prices from late-June offers converted at ≈1.08 USD/EUR.) The absence of significant week-on-week moves in US and Indian organic halves contrasts with a modest firming trend in Chinese kernel pieces, consistent with healthy demand for value segments.

Supply & Demand

American in-shell walnut shipments have increased sharply this season, reaching close to 300 million pounds in-shell. According to the latest California Walnut Board data, May in-shell shipments reached 12,862 pounds, more than double last year’s 5,558 pounds, underlining strong momentum into late season.

Exports are the main driver. May exports rose to 12,498 pounds versus 5,229 pounds last year, pushing year-to-date export shipments up by 114%, with domestic shipments also rising by 47%. This indicates that the industry has successfully accelerated inventory movement after previous oversupply years, with in-shell product moving particularly fast compared with kernels.

Turkey has emerged as a standout growth market, with shipments rising almost fivefold season-to-date. Additional strength comes from the wider Middle East and Africa, especially the UAE, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco. By contrast, shipments to Europe have softened slightly and exports to India are down around 10%, showing a geographic rebalancing of demand rather than universal growth.

Fundamentals

Kernel shipments also improved in May, rising 23% year-on-year, again led by exports. However, while market sentiment is clearly strong for American in-shell walnuts, kernel demand across regions is more evenly balanced, which helps explain why kernel prices in key markets such as London and New Delhi are stable rather than surging.

Recent analytical summaries of the April and May California Walnut Board reports confirm that total walnut shipments (in-shell equivalent) are running more than 20% ahead of last season, with in-shell shipments more than doubling year-on-year and accounting for a growing share of total movement.  This suggests effective stock drawdown and a gradual normalization after several oversupplied years, even if overall trading activity is described as measured rather than frenetic.

Globally, California remains the core price-setter, but competition from other origins (notably China in kernel segments) is still capping upside on bulk pieces. Chinese kernel offers show incremental firming in EUR terms, yet remain at a notable discount to US and Indian organic halves, supporting continued segmentation between premium and value channels.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook

Current commentary on California tree nuts points to an improving supply-demand balance rather than acute weather-driven stress, with no major, recent weather shocks reported for walnuts that would immediately threaten the 2026/27 crop. Early-season focus is instead on how orchards respond to past low-price years and acreage adjustments.

Given the already elevated shipment pace and limited uncommitted stocks for old crop highlighted by industry reports, weather-related surprises later in the season could have an outsized price impact. For now, however, the market is mainly watching standard crop development milestones rather than reacting to specific weather events.

Trading Outlook

• In-shell buyers (Turkey, MENA, importers in Europe): Consider accelerating coverage for Q3–Q4 needs while American in-shell availability is still comfortable, as shipment growth of over 100% year-on-year suggests old-crop stocks may tighten earlier than usual.
• Kernel buyers (industrial users, roasters): Use current stable kernel prices in Europe (≈4.16 EUR/kg FOB London for organic US halves) to extend coverage on core items, but stagger purchases to retain flexibility if European demand remains subdued.
• Origin sellers (US handlers, traders): For in-shell, current demand from Turkey and MENA supports a firm pricing stance; for kernels, maintain competitive offers versus Chinese supply, focusing on quality differentiation and logistics reliability rather than aggressive price hikes.
• Hedging & risk management: With no immediate weather shock but strong shipment data, upside risk is moderate and tied to potential new-crop issues; downside is limited by improved export pull and prior acreage rationalization.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Europe (FOB London, organic US halves): Around 4.1–4.2 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to mildly firm as export pull remains solid but buyers are not chasing the market.
• South Asia (FOB New Delhi, organic Indian halves): Around 4.9–5.0 EUR/kg, bias: stable, reflecting balanced local demand and slightly weaker import pull into India for US origin in-shell.
• China (FOB Dalian, kernel pieces and broken): Around 2.1–3.1 EUR/kg depending on grade, bias: slightly firm on steady global demand for value-oriented kernels.