Walnut Market Tightens as US Exports Surge and Chinese Prices Firm

US walnut exports are running strongly ahead of last season, with robust demand from Turkey, MENA and several Asian buyers tightening the global balance and underpinning prices. Firmer Chinese walnut values and broadly steady kernel quotations suggest a supportive, but not overheated, market. International trade flows are currently the key driver: US in-shell shipments have expanded sharply into Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa, while kernel exports into Europe and Asia remain solid. This export-led strength is offsetting slower US domestic consumption. At the same time, stronger Chinese prices and generally stable kernel offers from China, India and the US are helping define a floor for the market. Weather risks in California’s Central Valley and evolving freight conditions will be decisive for price direction into late July.

Prices

Recent indicative FOB kernel offers converted to EUR (approximate 1:1.05 USD/EUR where needed) show a broadly stable to mildly firmer structure:

Chinese domestic farm-gate prices have recently firmed on improving local demand and somewhat tighter spot availability, in contrast to last year’s much lower levels. Together with unchanged export offers from major origins, this points to a consolidating price floor rather than a new rally phase.

Supply & Demand

The US industry is currently export-driven. In-shell shipments have seen substantial year-on-year growth, led by Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco. Kernel exports continue to perform well, particularly into Europe, where Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and other markets maintain steady purchasing for snacking and food processing.

Asian demand is another key pillar. Vietnam stands out with strong kernel imports, while other Asia-Pacific destinations remain broadly stable. India has slowed slightly compared with last season, but this is more than offset by gains into Turkey and MENA, leaving overall regional demand supportive for US walnuts.

On the supply side, the combination of solid US export capacity and tighter Chinese market conditions keeps the global balance snug but manageable. Chinese prices have strengthened on better domestic off-take and less aggressive selling, while US exporters benefit from competitive freight and currency conditions into key growth markets such as Turkey and the wider Middle East.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals currently align in favor of a moderately firm market. Strong US in-shell export performance, healthy kernel flows to Europe and Asia, and elevated consumption of healthy snacks continue to underpin demand. At the same time, there is no clear evidence of supply scarcity, keeping buyers sensitive to price increases and inclined to purchase hand-to-mouth.

Weather risk bears watching. Forecasts for mid-July highlight a moderate risk of extreme heat across parts of California’s Central Valley, the core US walnut region, along with generally above-normal temperatures in the western US. While orchards are currently outside the critical nut fill and harvest windows, persistent heat could affect tree stress and water management, influencing yield and quality perceptions later in the season.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next 2–3 weeks, the walnut market is likely to remain fundamentally supported by export demand and firmer Chinese values, but capped by cautious buying and adequate kernel supply.

• Buyers / importers: Consider covering near-term kernel needs on dips, especially for US and Chinese light halves and quarters, while avoiding overbuying ahead of the Northern Hemisphere new crop. Focus on quality and origin differentiation, as price spreads between Chinese, US and Indian product remain meaningful.
• Packers / processors: For US origin, maintain an export-oriented sales strategy into Turkey, MENA and Vietnam, where demand momentum is strongest. Be prepared for possible freight or insurance noise linked to broader geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily favor nearby origin supply.
• End users / retailers: With consumer demand for healthy snacks stable in Europe and Asia, consider forward pricing part of Q4 needs while kernel prices are consolidating, but leave flexibility to benefit from any harvest-related softening later in the year.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• FOB China kernels (Dalian): Sideways to slightly firm; offers for standard light pieces and quarters expected to hold in the current EUR 2.3–3.3/kg range as domestic prices stay supported.
• US kernels (FOB Europe): Steady; organic light halves around EUR 4.5/kg with limited downside given strong export pulls and no immediate supply shock.
• Indian kernels (FOB New Delhi): Stable at a premium near EUR 5.3/kg; India is less aggressive on exports, so price moves will mainly track regional demand and currency.