Turkish Dried Apricots Ease Slightly But Stay Historically Tight

Turkish dried apricot prices have softened marginally week‑on‑week but remain at historically elevated levels in a market still constrained by the 2025 frost‑driven supply shock. FOB Malatya and Ankara values are edging lower by around EUR 0.10–0.50/kg across key sizes, while European FCA cube prices are broadly stable. The market is characterised by tight physical availability, steady EU demand and limited grower selling. Late‑spring frosts in April 2025 cut Turkey’s apricot crop by around two‑thirds versus 2024, with Malatya – the core dried apricot origin – suffering losses approaching 100% in some areas, sharply reducing new‑crop supply and exports. Current cool, wet weather in Malatya is neutral for already harvested dried stocks but underscores ongoing production risk in the orchards. Short‑term, prices are expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer as exporters ration remaining stocks.

Prices

FOB Malatya unsulphured bulk is easing but still firm. No.1–3 unsulphured grades trade in a narrow band around EUR 7.9–8.6/kg, down roughly 3–6% from early March levels. Sulphured equivalents remain at a discount of about EUR 1.0–1.6/kg depending on size and colour.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant global dried apricot exporter, but the 2025 frost slashed national apricot output by an estimated 65% versus 2024, with Malatya – source of the bulk of dried apricot production – hit hardest. Sector analyses suggest export‑quality production losses of 90–100% in key valleys, forcing reliance on carry‑over stocks and alternative origins.

Export data for mid‑2025 showed Turkish dried apricot shipments falling sharply; in August 2025, export volume fell by about 61% year‑on‑year, with revenue down 43%. Despite this, demand from Europe and other traditional markets has held relatively firm, supported by stable consumer usage and substitution away from other high‑priced dried fruits. Competing suppliers, notably Uzbekistan, increased dried apricot exports in 2025, partly into Turkey and regional markets, but volumes are insufficient to fully offset Turkish shortfalls on EU shelves.

Fundamentals & Weather (TR)

The 2025 frost event across at least 36 Turkish provinces, including Malatya, created widespread damage to fruit crops and contributed to food‑price inflation. Industry sources indicate many exporters have exhausted warehouse stocks and curtailed operations for the 2025/26 season, reinforcing a structurally tight balance sheet for dried apricots into 2026. Carry‑over stocks (≈30–50 thousand tonnes) have cushioned export flows but are expected to be largely depleted by late 2026 if current shipment pace continues.

For the coming three days (20–22 March 2026), Malatya is forecast to see cool, mostly cloudy conditions with intermittent rain, daytime highs around 9–10°C and lows near 2–3°C. This pattern is neutral for current dried stocks in storage but prolongs wet field conditions and underlines ongoing weather volatility that has already made apricot flowering and fruit‑set phases highly vulnerable in recent years.

Short‑Term Outlook (3 days, TR‑focused)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara: Sideways to slightly firmer; lower‑grade unsulphured and sulphured prices may stabilise after the latest 1–4% correction as sellers resist further discounts.
• FCA EU (NL, PL): Stable; current EUR‑denominated offers for cubes and packed goods are expected to hold as replacement costs from Turkey remain high and stocks are tightly managed.
• Organic segment: Tight and price‑resistant; organic unsulphured premiums over conventional likely to stay above EUR 1.2–1.5/kg in the very near term.

💹 Trading Outlook

• Buyers (EU packers, retailers): Consider covering needs for the next 2–3 months at current EUR levels, especially on key unsulphured no.1–3 grades, as structural tightness and depleted carry‑over could limit downside.
• Importers / Traders: Prioritise sulphured medium grades and EU‑in‑stock cubes where prices have corrected modestly and liquidity is higher than for premium unsulphured lines.
• Producers / Exporters in TR: Maintain offer discipline; with limited residual stocks and uncertain 2026 crop weather, aggressive discounting below current levels risks undervaluing remaining inventory.