Turkish dried apricots: EU dice ease slightly while Malatya FOB stays firm

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly stable, with only marginal easing on EU-stored diced product while core FOB Malatya/Ankara levels remain high and firm. Balanced nearby supply and calm weather in Malatya support a sideways short‑term outlook, with no immediate catalyst for a sharp price break. Demand from Europe is steady but cautious, as buyers cover nearby needs and wait for clearer new‑crop signals before extending coverage. Stocks from the previous crop appear adequate, and recent hail concerns have not yet translated into significant price moves. With Malatya weather currently warm and mostly dry and export flows healthy, the market looks set for a narrow trading range in the coming days.

Prices & Spreads

EU FCA diced apricots of Turkish origin stored in the Netherlands are trading in a tight, slightly softer band, with most conventional cubes between roughly 5.5–6.4 EUR/kg, down by around 0.02 EUR/kg across key sizes compared with mid‑May. Core industrial 8–10 mm cubes are near 3.25 EUR/kg FCA, also a touch lower than earlier in the month.

FOB offers from Malatya and Ankara for whole unsulphured fruit remain unchanged in recent days, reflecting a still‑tight balance after previous frost‑related supply issues. Market reports continue to characterise Q1–Q2 2026 Turkish dried apricot prices as “high and firm”, with only limited flexibility from exporters despite slightly softer export performance earlier in the year.

Supply, Demand & Weather

Turkey remains the dominant force in global dried apricots, with Malatya accounting for the bulk of national and world dried apricot supply. Recent export data for early 2026 show strong overall Turkish dried fruit exports, even as Malatya’s total exports across all sectors slipped year‑on‑year, suggesting dried apricots are still performing comparatively well in the region’s trade basket.

On the demand side, European buyers remain sensitive to high price levels and broader macro uncertainty, limiting forward coverage. Nonetheless, Turkey’s entrenched position and limited alternative origins mean buyers have little room to shift volumes, keeping a structural floor under prices whenever weather risks emerge.

Weather in Malatya over 31 May–2 June is forecast warm and mainly sunny, with highs around 24–27°C and only a small risk of isolated afternoon thundershowers. This supports good orchard conditions during a key development phase and, for now, alleviates fears that earlier localised storms could significantly damage 2026/27 crop potential. Hail remains a seasonal risk, but there are no immediate severe events in the short‑term outlook.

Fundamentals & Cost Drivers

Exporters emphasise that Turkish dried apricot pricing is strongly influenced by the TRY exchange rate, since production costs are in lira while export contracts are typically concluded in EUR or USD. A weaker lira tends to bolster international competitiveness and can partially offset domestic cost inflation, helping explain the current ability to maintain firm FOB prices despite softer internal demand.

Organic product continues to command a notable premium, often 30% or more over conventional, due to higher cultivation costs, lower yields and certification expenses. At the same time, stringent EU contaminant and residue standards keep a quality‑driven floor under prices, as exporters invest in testing and controlled drying and storage practices to avoid costly non‑compliance incidents.

Short‑Term Outlook (3 days)

With Malatya weather benign and no major new crop shocks reported in the last few days, Turkish dried apricot prices are expected to move sideways in the very short term. Nearby demand from EU industrial users remains regular, and existing stock levels from the previous crop appear sufficient to cover current shipments.

Given high absolute price levels and cautious forward buying, any renewed weather scare or confirmed yield loss could quickly reignite upside momentum, especially for premium unsulphured and organic grades. Conversely, absent such a trigger, modest easing is more likely to be seen first in EU‑stored diced material rather than in FOB whole fruit offers.

Trading Outlook

• EU buyers / industrial users: Use current slight softness in diced FCA prices to secure Q3 coverage, especially for cubes 8–10 mm, while keeping some flexibility in case of later weather‑driven rallies.
• Turkish exporters: Maintain offer discipline on whole fruit FOB; limited alternative origins and stable weather favour a firm price stance, but be prepared for selective discounts on slower‑moving grades or dice to stimulate demand.
• Retail/brand owners: Consider gradual, rather than aggressive, forward buying of organic lines, as premiums remain wide but structurally justified by supply and certification constraints.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• TR – Malatya / Ankara, FOB whole dried apricots (unsulphured & sulphured): High and firm; expected sideways over the next 3 days.
• NL – Dordrecht, FCA diced cubes (TR origin): Slightly easier tone after recent minor softening; bias stable to mildly lower in the very short term.
• PL – Lodz, FCA low‑grade whole dried apricots (TR origin): Quiet, with prices seen stable and closely tracking Turkish FOB indications.